Boris Johnson must be driven by data, not dates, in the weeks ahead

Such is the level of public and official disquiet about the latest unlock, it’s surprising that it hasn’t been reversed already. That may yet come. The data flow over the next few days and weeks will soon reveal whether this was indeed the moment to take what can be generously termed a calculated risk. A risk, nonetheless, that the prime minister is taking with other people’s lives.

If the hints emanating from former chief aide, Dominic Cummings, are anything to go by, it is not the first time in the history of this pandemic that Boris Johnson has rolled the dice and hoped for the best.

The truth is that the assessment of the risks posed by the more infective Indian variant may soon be revised by the scientists, and some, inside Sage and outside it, have concluded that this variant does massively alter the outlook for Covid-19.

By his own witness, Mr Johnson says that there is “no conclusive evidence” about the way the risk has changed – but that means that there is inconclusive evidence, and therefore the possibility of more cases and hospitalisations and – a risk as defined by the fourth of the tests for relaxation set by the government itself: “Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.”

That assessment is now underway, and it would have been better, given the enormity of the steps now being taken, to have waited a week or two for the assessment to be complete before taking step three.

It is no use waiting until the risk turns into reality, and is reflected in the statistics before reacting. Because Covid spreads quickly and multiplies exponentially, a delay can be literally fatal to thousands of patients, or at least the numbers falling ill, and suffering from debilitating long Covid. For the young and unvaccinated the consequences are especially acute.

Little is known about the Indian variant, but what knowledge has been gleaned from labs and experiences in Bolton, is not entirely encouraging. It is certainly more infective than previous variants and will hospitalise some of those who are not vaccinated.

The vaccines may work against the variant, but they are never 100 per cent protective, and, despite the vaccination surge, few people under the age of 40 have had the vaccine in any case. It is a race the virus is probably winning in the hotspots, and now it has gained scale, it is impossible to stop.

The scientists, by all accounts, were divided on the wisdom of going ahead to step three of the roadmap this week, and there are obvious causes for caution. If there were not, ministers would now be telling us to go out and enjoy ourselves, rather than issue sombre warnings about caution and restraint.

Mr Johnson, Matt Hancock, Rishi Sunak and Kwasi Kwarteng would have grabbed the TV news crews and headed to the nearest watering hole to get the rounds in, dish the bar snacks out and pose for the usual cheesy pictures, very possibly in a Wetherspoons with Tim Martin. They did no such thing this time around, tellingly, because they know full well that in taking this gamble with the roadmap, such images might well come back to haunt them.

Given what was already known about the Indian variant even a week ago, the government was pushing its luck. This is not a matter of hindsight, it is a real-time debate about public health. It would have taken huge political courage to have postponed Monday’s unlock, given the hopes that have been raised and the blow to the leisure sector.

Political courage is not a commodity this government possesses in abundance, however, and so it went ahead anyway, with no doubt lukewarm backing from Sage. It does rather suggest that, on this occasion, policy has been driven by dates rather than data. There is nervousness in the air. It doesn’t feel that good.