Boris Johnson and the Tories should heed David Davis’s warning

Though it feels much longer ago, it is now a year since David Davis rose to his feet on the furthest backbench of the House of Commons, peered down at Boris Johnson and quoted the ageless words of Oliver Cromwell to an earlier superannuated parliament: “You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.” Historians noted that the same phrase had been uttered by another rebellious but conscientious Tory backbencher, Leo Amery, to Neville Chamberlain during Britain’s darkest hour in 1940. As with Cromwell and Amery before him, Mr Davis’s intervention helped hasten political change.

Twelve months on, then, and after much turbulence, Mr Johnson is gone. Yet unlike Cromwell’s 17th-century parliamentary offal or the luckless Chamberlain, Mr Johnson and his acolytes have not gone quietly into that good night. The campaign to restore Mr Johnson began literally at the moment of his departure, when his pointed leaving statement in Downing Street implicitly argued that he had only been ejected from the leadership of the “parliamentary Conservative Party” (ie not the party nationally) by a panicking herd of MPs, who had actually given him a formal vote of confidence only weeks before. The “stab-in-the-back” myth was founded – a noble and loved leader betrayed by the careerist treachery of the likes of Rishi Sunak, and the stupidity and cowardice of some backbenchers.

After an overlong period of convalescence and a brief, abortive attempt at a comeback as Liz Truss was tottering towards her own downfall, Mr Johnson has relied on old friends and patrons to press his case and plot his return. The fanbase has morphed into a party within a party, the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO). Led by Lord Cruddas, a party benefactor, it is promoted by such praetorian figures as Priti Patel and Nadine Dorries. Their message is twofold. First, that Mr Sunak is not the legitimate leader of the party because his candidature was not put to the wider membership in the country. Second, that the Tories cannot win the next general election unless Mr Johnson is brought back. Warm memories of the EU referendum win in 2016 and the 2019 election persist in some Tory circles. They believe that Mr Johnson can turn things around again.

Mr Davis is right to take this nonsense on. He, after all, knows a thing or two about Tory machinations. He was chief whip under John Major during the Maastricht debate years, party chairman under Iain Duncan Smith, stood for the leadership in 2005, was a constructive critic of David Cameron and served in Theresa May’s cabinet. He’s seen it all, and he is not impressed by Mr Johnson’s Trumpian refusal to accept his fate. As Mr Davis states: “Boris famously avoided any hard decisions like the plague. His share of the decline was a straight judgement on his character by the public, largely around Partygate. Polling conducted around the time he left office gave him a net popularity rating of -53 per cent, one of the worst ratings for a prime minister in modern times.”

Much as his supporters would wish to rewrite history, Wallpapergate, Partygate, the Owen Paterson affair and the Chris Pincher scandal really did happen. The Brexit deal was indeed botched and levelling up never materialised. Mr Johnson was deeply discredited by the time most of his ministers resigned in despair and he was unable to form a government. Whatever boosterish charm helped him win the last election – in which he was greatly assisted by Jeremy Corbyn – has long since dissipated. He was, and is, a busted flush, but no one seems brave enough to tell him – hence Mr Davis’s timely intervention.

Before long, many of Mr Johnson’s misfortunes and misjudgements will be played out once again in public. The House of Commons privileges committee will interrogate him and other witnesses about whether he lied to parliament. After that, the official Covid inquiry will start to gather its evidence into the official response to the pandemic. Neither of these exercises is likely to burnish Mr Johnson’s tarnished reputation.

Perhaps, somewhere deeply buried under the rubble of his career and that heavy ego of his, Mr Johnson may realise the game is up. He is no doubt looking to the May local elections – likely to be another disaster for his party – as a moment of opportunity, but surely he sees that is a narrow one. The CDO has “helpfully” invited the lost leader to their conference to speak shortly afterwards. He may well test the waters again, albeit without much confidence that he can usurp Mr Sunak. But his MPs know full well that another protracted leadership contest and the return of Mr Johnson might finish them off as a serious party of government for good.

Mr Johnson might have some inkling of his reality because it’s rumoured he has begged Mr Sunak to find him a safe seat to scuttle off to as the general election approaches. Perhaps Mr Johnson will one day end up as a lively leader of the Conservative opposition, freed of executive cares and responsibility. It might well be the best he can hope for. In any case, Mr Davis is right: if Mr Johnson’s foolish pipe dream of a resurrection continues, he and his party will be out of power for a decade once more.