Boris Johnson had to go – and he should not make a comeback

Some people in the Conservative Party seem to have extraordinarily short and selective memories. The prime minister, in his final days, seems to have no awareness of recent history at all. Nothing other than concussive amnesia could explain the extraordinary speculation about Boris Johnson returning to office.

It seems that “hasta la vista, baby” may have been more a sinister promise than a jolly throwaway remark when Mr Johnson declared his (apparent) intention to resign a few long weeks ago.

According to Rory Stewart, one-time colleague of, and rival to, Mr Johnson, “I’m afraid he has an extraordinary ego and he believes he was badly treated … I fear we are going to end up with a second Berlusconi or a second Trump trying to rock back in again.”

There are other grounds for believing this might well be the case, and that this extraordinary turn of events might actually come to pass. Lord Cruddas, a Tory donor, is organising a petition among Tory party members to annul the leadership ballot to reinstate Mr Johnson as leader and prime minister. “It is not too late” his lordship argues, heroically.

The lacklustre performances during the leadership campaign of Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss May also be leading some activists towards “sellers’ remorse” – though many never wanted him ousted in the first place, and blame the media and plotting MPs for the demise of their cult leader.

Internal surveys suggest Mr Johnson is more popular among the grassroots than either Mr Sunak or Ms Truss. If it were solely up to the members, rather than rebellious MPs and ministers, Mr Johnson would still be safely ensconced in No 10, and he has grounds for thinking that he might one day be able to return. It would be the biggest comeback since Winston Churchill in 1940, or possibly Lazarus, and one can see why it would appeal to Mr Johnson’s elevated sense of destiny.

They need to calm down. Mr Johnson didn’t have to leave office because he was the victim of a mainstream media conspiracy in cahoots with “Remoaner” Tory MPs. Mr Johnson had to go because he wilfully forfeited the confidence of his parliamentary party.

After a vote of confidence he barely won, with evidence that his authority was fast evaporating, more than 60 of his ministers resigned – and his whips advised him that he couldn’t fill the resulting vacancies because too few MPs were ready to serve under him. They had had enough of the scandals and the lies.

The prime minister was unable to fulfil the basic constitutional requirements that he could command a majority in the House of Commons and form a government in the name of Her Majesty. Under the British system, the views of the Conservative Party in the country are irrelevant.

More broadly, Mr Johnson had to go, could not carry on and should not make a comeback because he was a walking, talking scandal machine. Even now, there remains the unfinished business of the parliamentary investigation into whether he knowingly misled the House of Commons over Partygate.

There would be more scandals if he stayed in office, distracting his government and sending his party to defeat after defeat. Tory members need to remember the scandals over Owen Paterson, the Downing Street flat refurbishment, breaking the law during lockdown, and various other lesser scrapes. They might also contemplate the way Mr Johnson led his party to a series of disastrous defeats in local elections and a string of spectacular by-election losses to the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

Tory members have rosy memories of Mr Johnson’s barnstorming performances in the 2016 EU referendum and the 2019 general election, and the remarkable coalitions of voters he assembled to “get Brexit done”. He was a considerable electoral asset but, through his own recklessness and arrogance, deteriorated into a substantial electoral liability.

Labour, even before his leadership ended, was building polling leads that would have been thought fantastical among the post-Corbyn wreckage. Keir Starmer was eventually able to punch through the Covid crisis and find some rapport with the electorate. Mr Johnson’s boosterish rhetoric and punchy slogans looked increasingly at odds with the realities of people’s lives.

The opportunities of Brexit didn’t deliver the prosperity promised, and his government gained a deserved reputation for dither, delay and incompetence. It is not obvious that even now a Johnson-led government would have an answer to the cost of living crisis, and be able to unite around it.

The same tensions about tax and “handouts” that have emerged during the leadership campaign were already evident before Mr Johnson’s resignation. Disagreements between him and his then chancellor, Mr Sunak, were rumoured at the time and have since been confirmed by Mr Sunak. Indeed they were part cause for his departure from office.

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With Mr Johnson reportedly ready to speak at the next party conference, to resume his journalistic activities and, maybe, compose a volume of self-serving memoirs, we have not heard the last of him. More to the point, neither has his likely successor, Liz Truss.

Mr Johnson will offer a more or less running commentary on her decisions, with the constant theme that things would be so much better if he, Boris Johnson, were still at the helm exercising his unique inspirational leadership and getting the “big calls” right. The party will be unable to unite around Ms Truss with Mr Johnson’s constant interference.

Like Donald Trump and the Republicans, Mr Johnson will exert considerable influence over his party’s policies, leading personalities and outlook. Even if he is unlikely to be in a position to lead his party to victory at the next general election, Mr Johnson is more than capable of doing sufficient damage to make sure his successor loses it. After that… who can say?