Boris Johnson is strong enough to wound, but not powerful enough to conquer

Could 2023 be the year when Boris Johnson breaks another political convention and makes his comeback? It’s not the most pressing question on the national political agenda, but it’s certainly exercising the Conservative Party, which may only serve to prove how quite out of touch with “the people’s priorities” the party has actually become.

On social media, in Conservative circles, the dire state of the party is promoting some radical thinking. Believing that Mr Johnson was stabbed in the back by cowardly and treacherous ministerial colleagues last year, with Rishi Sunak helping lead the rebellion, Johnsonites have never stopped their shadow leadership campaign to get him reinstated.

In truth, it is a sign of some desperation. But as the party’s troubles show no sign of abating, economic recession starts to set in – and the Tories face a wipeout in the May local elections – we may expect more and more Tories to talk wistfully about Mr Johnson’s magic touch and the triumphs of the 2016 EU referendum and the 2019 general election. Much has changed since then, but to some he remains talismanic. After the political self-immolation of Liz Truss, the right of the Conservative Party is renewing its enthusiasm for Mr Johnson.

Now the campaign seems to be gathering some more momentum, tacitly and slyly no doubt encouraged by Mr Johnson himself, a man addicted to disloyalty and plotting – but cunning enough not to make it too obvious. There was, for example, a prime ministerial-style new year message from the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, as if he were still in power. This week, he was honoured by his acolytes with a portrait and gala dinner at the Carlton Club, a famous Tory establishment.

The Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO) – a sort of Tory version of Labour’s Momentum – is demanding that party members “must take back control”. It’s no coincidence that both Mr Johnson and Ms Truss were backed by the individual party membership, while Rishi Sunak was selected without recourse to a national ballot of the grassroots. The CDO enjoys the support of ex-members of the Johnson Praetorian Guard, such as Priti Patel and Nadine Dorries. Ms Dorries, never one to understate her case, wrote recently that: “For the Conservatives, it’s bring back Boris or die.”

It remains unlikely that they will, and for very good reasons. MPs, who are still the gatekeepers of the leadership, and especially those with ministerial experience, know Mr Johnson well and know that it was he who landed them in trouble in the first place – Brexit, Wallpapergate and Partygate. They also know that he is arrogant enough to still believe that he’s done nothing wrong, and it’s the price the party and country must pay for the privilege of his genius. With Mr Johnson back in, it would only be matter of time before another scrape or another scandal would hit them.

Indeed, the latest allegations about Partygate suggest that he was even more contemptuous than previously thought about the Covid rules he was setting for everyone else. Nor has his liking for preserving his personal wealth and entitled lifestyle at the expense of others diminished since he left his expensively decorated living quarters in Downing Street. He is reportedly currently living rent-free in the £20m house owned by the wife of a Tory donor. No lessons have been learned about propriety, either by the former prime minster or his indulgent fan club.

There is also the small matter of lying to parliament. The House of Commons privileges committee looks determined to conduct a fair but thorough review of the allegations that Mr Johnson misled the Commons, and will act accordingly. He is unlikely to emerge unscathed from their proceedings; and if the sanction is harsh enough he would face a recall petition and a tough by-election in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, far from a safe seat these days. In any case, Mr Johnson, whatever his charms, is unlikely to be able to overhaul a Labour lead of around 15 to 20 percentage points just by going around the country with his thumbs up and making implausible promises again. He, like Brexit, is no longer fashionable.

Yet none of this will stop Mr Johnson and his allies from making mischief for his successor, whom he regards as a snake. Mr Johnson is a compulsive political gambler, and almost staged an attempt at a return in the confusion following the fall of Ms Truss – but, tellingly, had to pull back, admitting that he would be unable to lead a government with so many of its own MPs opposed to him. Indeed, the most likely outcome is that Mr Johnson and his attempts to emulate the miracle of Lazarus will divide and distract his party for the rest of this parliament.

It is something of a worst-case scenario, the party being deprived of whatever boosterish, tub-thumping, populist campaigning strengths Mr Johnson possesses, but continually damaged by never-ending leadership speculation. Mr Johnson is strong enough to wound, but not powerful enough to conquer. From being his party’s greatest electoral asset, Mr Johnson has degenerated into one of its biggest liabilities. The shame of it is that he simply does not seem able to see it, or, if he does, that he does not care.