Boris Johnson’s Brexit blame game will come back to bite him at the general election

Any remaining hopes that Boris Johnson’s proposals for a Brexit deal would win the EU’s backing seem to have been extinguished after a tense phone call between him and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.

Last week, there were initial signs that the UK’s plan for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU’s single market regulatory orbit would at least provide a basis for discussion, if not for agreement. But the two sides were still poles apart on customs, always likely to be the stumbling block, and so it has proved.

The manner in which the tentative talks have virtually collapsed is instructive. An astonishing briefing to The Spectator by a Downing Street source shows that Mr Johnson has learned nothing from Theresa May’s experience.

Like her, he is trying to “divide and rule” EU member states – in this case, threatening to withdraw cooperation on sensitive matters such as defence and security from countries which support an extension of the UK’s EU membership beyond 31 October. This was both reckless and naive, since it was bound to drive the 27 even closer together. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, was right to warn Mr Johnson: “What’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people.”

Similarly, threatening to disrupt the EU during the extension period is unlikely to move the markets in Brussels. The EU27 are much smarter than some in the UK government think; they are unlikely to be provoked into refusing the extension the prime minister will now likely be forced to seek under the Benn Act to prevent a crash out.

Perhaps No 10 hoped that the threat of withdrawing Mr Johnson’s proposals and backing no deal would push the EU into serious last-minute negotiations. More likely is that the aggressive briefing, and a similar one about the Johnson-Merkel discussion, mark the start of a “blame game” that was always the most likely outcome.

Indeed, it was almost certainly in the Johnson playbook all along. On becoming prime minister, he put most of the government’s energies into preparing for no deal, and was in no hurry to engage with the EU about a deal. Only when the Benn Act threatened his planned 31 October departure timetable, did he put the same effort into striking an agreement. It was always likely to be too little, too late, and so it has proved.

So now we are probably heading for an extension and a general election, which the Conservatives will fight on a “no delay” ticket in the hope of seeing off the threat from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. That will be widely seen as a “no deal” ticket, especially if the talks with the EU end acrimoniously – and Johnson allies are doing their best to ensure they do.

The intemperate briefings give the impression that some in Downing Street think it is all a game to be played for electoral advantage. For them, the “blame game” works at several levels. Mr Johnson can blame the extension on the EU for not accepting his proposals and backbenchers in all parties, Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson, for supporting the Benn Act. He will probably blame the judiciary too, since the act is likely to be tested in the courts before he grudgingly requests an extension. Much easier than accepting responsibility for his own actions, which would be a novelty.

Mr Johnson has clearly chosen his path to what he hopes will be an election victory. He is gambling on winning Labour-held, Leave-voting seats in the north and midlands, some of which have not returned a Tory MP for decades. He hopes his “no delay” manifesto will unite the Leave vote behind his party.

Yet he seems to have conveniently forgotten that 4 million Tory supporters voted Remain in the 2016 referendum. Will they vote for a party committed to a no-deal Brexit? It is unlikely. There is no guarantee that this damaging, unedifying game will hand Mr Johnson the victory he wants.