A successful summit between Biden and Zelensky – but the elephant in the room remains

Editorial: Without planes, the whole effort of the last year, including tragic civilian casualties, stands at risk of being wasted

Monday 20 February 2023 15:05 EST
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The mutual respect, even affection, between the president and his Ukrainian counterpart was evident
The mutual respect, even affection, between the president and his Ukrainian counterpart was evident (Ukrainian Presidential Press Service)

As long as it takes.” Joe Biden’s pledge of long-term support in what looks increasingly likely to be a long-drawn-out conflict in Ukraine was obviously as welcome in Kyiv as his arrival was a well-kept secret.

The mutual respect, even affection, between the president and his Ukrainian counterpart was evident throughout the surprise visit. It was a brave and bold gesture of support from the United States. It was also exceptionally well timed, coming as the Russian invasion approaches its one-year mark.

Mr Biden’s Ukraine meeting comes after highly successful visits to Washington, London, Paris and Brussels by Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as a further show of Western solidarity at the Munich Security Conference. President Biden has powerfully reiterated Western policy in Kyiv just as Vladimir Putin prepares to address the Russian people in his annual address, and a few days before China unveils its Ukraine peace plan. He has thus firmly lobbed the diplomatic ball into the Russian and Chinese courts.

This was the official visit that was not supposed to happen. Had President Putin’s ill-fated “special military operation” proceeded as planned, Kyiv would now be well into its Russification, its government thrown into exile, and President Biden would not have been welcome. It has not proved so, and that has been thanks to a combination of Ukrainian bravery and Western armaments.

The lesson of the last year is not that the West was wrong to help Ukraine and risk “escalation”, but that had more been done earlier, then the Russians would have been beaten back still further by now, and a Ukrainian victory would be that much closer at hand.

Even so, Ukraine’s resistance and its counterattacks have been impressive. This is not a moment to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Rhetorically, at any rate, President Biden recognises this, and a further half-billion dollars of military aid is proof of that.

The elephant flying around the vast gilded staterooms of the Mariinsky Palace is likely to have been the question of providing fighter jets to Ukraine. There are signs, most notably from Rishi Sunak, that Ukraine’s friends are sympathetic to the idea – but, as defence secretary Ben Wallace often reminds us, it is no simple matter.

Modern Western fighter jets are more like Formula One cars than their forebears; they are complex pieces of technology that demand big “pit teams” to service them, plus prolonged training schemes for pilots. Such training is under way, but the logistical challenges remain formidable. There was no obvious sign from Mr Biden that he is about to offer planes, and it seems that the secrets embedded in America’s best and latest aircraft are too sensitive to be released into a theatre of war.

Soon, the Russians’ spring offensive will start in earnest, and it will be as brutal as, and more effective than, the lame effort last year. China has edged ever closer to supplying Russia with weaponry, even in the face of stern warnings from US secretary of state Anthony Blinken.

Even without clandestine Chinese and Iranian support, Russia has superiority in troop numbers and in the air, and it seems foolish for the West to dispatch such huge quantities of artillery, missile systems, armoured vehicles and tanks – at enormous cost – without affording them some air cover and assuring Ukraine of technological superiority to compensate for its smaller numbers.

Without the planes, the whole effort of the last year, including tragic civilian casualties, stands at risk of being wasted. Meanwhile, Russia will only be emboldened to embark on its next aggressive adventure, threatening the West with nuclear armageddon along the way. Ukraine must win.

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