The win in Batley and Spen hints Labour might be turning a corner

Having won an unexpected and rather important by-election, Labour just cannot seem to help but make the worst of it. The reaction was all too typical, and almost surreal. All agree that Kim Leadbeater was an excellent local candidate who fought a brilliant campaign (which was not always the stated view during the last few weeks).

There the amity ends. Supporters of Keir Starmer argue that Labour won because he (rather than Jeremy Corbyn) was leading it. Opponents claim that Labour won despite Sir Keir, rather than because of him.

The psephological evidence cuts both ways, and there are no answers to the hypothetical questions. Until an alternative universe is constructed in which Mr Corbyn is still leader, or has been seamlessly succeeded by, say, Dawn Butler, Andy Burnham or Richard Burgon, there is no possibility of resolving the issue – which is the ideal situation in a Labour Party so fond of in-fighting.

It is only fair to acknowledge the remarkable performance of George Galloway, the ex-Labour MP who, once again, stormed into a Labour seat with eye-popping consequences. One in five of those who bothered to turn out were attracted by his divisive and overheated style of politics; others will have been repelled. He has not been gracious in defeat, but that is entirely consistent with the Galloway manner of doing things.

It is also only fair to Labour to suggest that much of the vote that went to Mr Galloway’s Workers Party would otherwise have gone to Labour, or at least stayed at home, if Mr Galloway hadn’t turned up. He was basically a spoiler for the Labour campaign, and Ms Leadbeater’s majority probably would have been far bigger had he not intervened. By contrast, and unlike in 2017 or 2019, there was no proper Brexit-inclined grouping ready to steal some of the Conservative vote. The Tories had the clearer run, and they still failed to take the seat. It may have been the scandal surrounding Matt Hancock that somewhat slowed the momentum for them.

There is just a hint in this by-election result that Labour might be turning something of a corner. By virtue of its narrowly avoiding defeat, the party may find that chatter about its leadership has been quelled. The Covid-19 vaccine bounce, which has demonstrably helped Boris Johnson, has played itself out; the country is starting to be concerned about the immediate economic prospects as the furlough and other support schemes are withdrawn; and the Labour attack lines of “one rule for them” and “sleaze” may be cutting through with the electorate.

None of that means Labour is on course to win the next election, or even potentially the one after that; but the result in Batley and Spen, along with the recent success in Chesham and Amersham of the Liberal Democrats, might just mean that the long slump in the fortunes of the opposition parties is bottoming out.