Trump’s legal trouble could make or break his campaign

Donald Trump is currently in the eye of a storm. After the sound and the fury surrounding his recent appearance in a Manhattan courtroom – including his speech when back in Florida suggesting that America is "going to hell" – there should be a short period of quiet.

At least relatively speaking – the former president is hardly known for being the quiet type. His 2024 presidential campaign will certainly be rolling on in the background. When Trump pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records over hush money payments in New York, his campaign sent out a fundraising email selling T-shirts with a mocked-up mugshot of Trump and the legend: “Not guilty.”

His campaign will also be watching the polls with interest. The news around Trump’s indictment had been rolling for weeks, thanks – at least in part – to the 45th president tweeting a date for his own arrest (one that proved to be wrong), so Republican voters had plenty of time to get used to the idea.

The polls of who Republicans would support as their next presidential nominee released around his court appearance (so the fieldwork was done before that date at the end of March) showed that Trump had actually expanded his lead over the current closest challenger, Florida governor Ron DeSantis.

In Quinnipiac’s 2024 primary poll support for the former president sat at 47 per cent; an increase from 42 per cent the month before. He was 14 percentage points ahead of DeSantis, whereas the previous month that lead sat at six percentage points. In a Fox News poll, Trump sat at 54 per cent to DeSantis’ 24 per cent (the previous month, the same poll had him at 43 per cent and DeSantis at 28 per cent).

So what about now? In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, where the questions were asked on the 5 and 6 April, Trump’s numbers had actually increased again. Trump sits at 58 per cent support, to DeSantis’ 21 per cent. In mid-March, those numbers stood at 44 per cent and 30 per cent. There are caveats. That is just one poll, and Trump’s name recognition, for better or worse, puts him on a different level to most other political candidates. But the team around Trump will be happy with those numbers.

There also seem to have been some lessons learned from Trump’s past. One long-time operative who has been around Trump’s circle told NBC News: “I’ve never seen a more professional operation around Trump. I’ve also never seen a Trump-world operation with so little infighting ... All of the key people are genuine pros.”

After what was a significant moment in US history – for all the wrong reasons – last week, those "genuine pros" will not be displeased with the reaction of the supporter base they are seeking to court.

Whether that can be replicated with the wider poll of independent voters is still unknown. There are still other, distinct, separate investigations continuing including in Fulton County, Georgia, as well as the district attorney and the Department of Justice.

The Georgia case is investigating what Trump or his allies may have done in efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential victory in the state. As for the Justice Department, the special counsel Jack Smith is looking into documents containing national defence information found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort and into parts of the 6 January 2021 assault on the US Capitol.

So there is the potential for Trump’s legal issues to increase. But the next part of the business records case is not due until later in the year.

Trump’s team will want to make as much political hay as they can now, with the aim of trying to build up a momentum that would be difficult to stop once the voting for the Republican presidential nominees begins.

It is a tough ask, but Trump’s camp will probably be happy with where they are.