This is the best way to counter Trump-era climate denial

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) brought in by the Biden administration was – and still is – the largest investment in climate and energy in American history.

It’s already led to over $560bn in private sector investments in clean energy tech, and a quarter of this money is now flowing straight into manufacturing jobs. In its first year, it led to over 280 clean energy projects across 44 US states.

And yet, rather than championing this impressive feat and making crucial ties between climate progress, green jobs, investment and shared economic growth, the Harris campaign squandered the opportunity – instead choosing to brag on multiple occasions about increased oil production. (By September this year, the US was producing over 13.2 million barrels of crude oil per day.)

The result is that the IRA is now at risk, with the incoming Trump administration seen by many as a blow to climate progress.

But all is not lost. Many of the states that voted for Trump – like Texas, North Dakota and Alaska – are home to significant renewable energy generation and expansion, thanks largely to the IRA.

While these states might bleed red right now, they will prove critical when it comes to getting climate issues back on the ballot for the midterms in two years’ time, and back on the agenda between now and then. And there are two main groups to focus on: green workers and farmers.

Let’s start with workers. President Biden was described as the most “pro-labour president since FDR”. He supported Amazon workers in Alabama, supported unions and pay equity on federal projects, extended overtime eligibility, and the man labelled Union Joe even joined a picket line in Michigan.

But when it came to the rust belt, the manufacturing heartlands of the US, the Democrats were trounced. Republicans not only strengthened every blue-collar state they held in 2020 but gained Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

However, Republican districts have disproportionately benefited from the investment headwinds of the IRA. This is why 18 Republican congressmen publicly pushed their own party to keep those investments flowing, because of the benefits to so many “US companies already using sector-wide energy tax credits”.

It led to jobs in swing states on construction sites and factories, on house roofs and roads, and on farms and far-away places all over the country. It also means workers who have been trained in solar installations and battery development might even enjoy their new jobs more than the old ones.

While they may have voted for Trump’s fireworks, when he imposes tariffs, tax cuts for CEOs and not workers, cuts pollution limits and federal jobs – and when he comes for the IRA – workers around the country will feel the impact of his reign the most. They will know what it’s like to have – and lose – a climate job, and they’re far less attached to the fossil fuel comforts of overconsumption.

When they inevitably protest, the climate movement needs to follow. And when Democrats run in city councils and the midterms, they should run on policies proud to create, sustain and train up for more climate jobs.

And that brings me to farmers. Already this century, Gen-Zers growing up on their family farms across America’s southwest would have lived through the driest 22 years in the last 12 centuries. It’s been such a long dry spell that scientists now call it a “mega-drought”, one that almost certainly wouldn’t have been possible without climate change.

In 2021, these same parts of the country were so dry that local water catchments like Lake Mead and Lake Powell ran dry. These reservoirs are fed by the Colorado River and act as the primary water storage for about 40 million people in the US, let alone those in Mexico.

The river cuts across key Republican strongholds like Utah and Wyoming, and swing states like New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona, which both swung for Trump this year. There are 41 electoral votes in that grouping alone, and Trump won 26 of them. Four years earlier, Biden won 32.

For farmers in these states, climate change isn’t some future risk for their grandkids; it’s a hip-pocket, here-and-now kinda problem. And if they’re farming along the Colorado River, climate shifts might cut water levels by 20 per cent over the next 25 years.

Even right now, while the mega-drought has partially lifted in the west, Texas is doing it tough, farmers in Wyoming are living through water rations, and the northeastern states are experiencing a severe, surprising drought of their own.

When you look at an electoral map of almost any state in the US, you’d probably think I’m nuts for wanting to engage farmers. Outside the big sitcom-famous cities, the rest of the country is a sunburnt, deep red. But most of these farmers rely on hefty subsidies to stay competitive in a global export market that Trump has promised to disrupt. The US already has a net negative agricultural trade balance, and this could get far worse.

Many of them might also rely on migrant labour to keep costs down, which Trump’s “border czar” has promised to target. And while he famously only has “concepts of a plan” for healthcare, Trump may yet come after Medicaid which is nothing if not a lifeline for rural communities.

All I’m saying is that these farmers who voted for Trump in 2024 might not be his biggest fans over the next few years. Add in some horribly dry years, maybe even some wildfires, like those currently burning across Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts, and these same farmers might even start wondering if all that oil and gas production is really worth it.

Tapping into these real, frustrated communities could be a genuine avenue to expand the (don’t say “climate”) movement over the next few years. Throw in some innovative ideas about adding solar panels to farms that can accommodate it, and you might even have something new and valuable to offer.