It’s all over: the Conservatives are unpleasant, ineffective – and shot to pieces

The by-election losses in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire illustrate that the Conservative party is shot to pieces in its current state. Nothing in life is ever certain, but I think the writing is on the wall for the Conservatives at the next general election.

Labour is benefiting from a mood of “anyone but the Tories”. If the Liberal Democrats were able to articulate a national vision – which they have not done – then the Conservatives would be in even worse trouble. It could mean a collapse in blue wall seats in the south of England and an outcome far worse than in 1997.

There is a problem with trust and integrity. I have no doubt most people will think that Rishi Sunak is a transparently decent man trying to do his best. But the party is labouring under a legacy of having tolerated the leadership of a complete charlatan for three years.

Boris Johnson had an incredibly destructive impact on public trust and it is hard to recover from that. Brexit and choosing Boris Johnson as leader were disasters for the party. Failing to get rid of Johnson swiftly when it should have been obvious to MPs he was unfit to hold office was another disaster. And then Liz Truss’s short time at No 10 compounded the damage. She was a sign the party had no clear idea how to get out of the mess which the public see correctly as being, in large part, of their own creation.

Rishi Sunak is going to have immense difficulty in recovering from these blows. The prime minister and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt have succeeded in stabilising the situation – but they have not yet succeeded in demonstrating there is new and sustained growth in the economy or that the country is moving in a better direction that gives people optimism and hope.

It has also become clear that Brexit has been very damaging to the UK. That is now a policy that hangs around the neck of the party like a dead albatross – it was after all principally Conservative MPs and party members who promoted it.

Unfortunately, Sunak still feels he has to conciliate a group of people on the Tory right who are the architects of the disaster. They are the drag anchor which is bringing the party’s time in office to a halt and making recovery far more difficult.

As an example, people are clearly very worried about small boats and immigration levels. But the stridency of the rhetoric on immigration – combined with the failure of any policy initiative to have a significant impact – makes the party look both unpleasant and ineffective.

The worst-case prospect for the Conservatives is that the economy does not pick up, the party loses the next election very badly and then takes another lurch to the right because the membership still doesn’t understand that, just like Labour under Corbyn, it is talking to itself in an echo chamber of ideological fantasies.

The best-case scenario for the Conservatives is that Sunak pursues sensible policies which create a degree of economic revival.

I still doubt that it will be enough to keep the party in power – but it might prevent a complete wipeout. I hope thereafter that the party comes to its senses and begins to return to the centre-right. It is the only place from which elections can be won again.