These are the troubling political calculations behind Dominic Cummings breaking lockdown rules – and Tories rushing to defend him

Why does the Dominic Cummings lockdown story matter? Because it gives us a rare glimpse into the UK government’s worldview – and it’s absolutely damning.

I’m sure that some of the calls for the PM’s top advisor to be fired are motivated by political grudges, but there is genuine public outrage that one of the architects of the country’s coronavirus lockdown strategy broke both the letter and the spirit of the rules by travelling 260 miles from London to Durham with a family member who had coronavirus symptoms, when the whole family should have been self-isolating together.

Rather than admit his error, Cummings is unsurprisingly unrepentant. What has been astonishing to witness is the series of Conservative MPs, including the prime minister himself, take to the airwaves in an organised line of defence. Over the past two days, they have all uttered variations on the following explanation: Cummings was worried that both he and his wife would become sick and unable to care for their four-year-old child so he travelled to stay with his relatives; calling for him to be fired is ugly political point scoring, because what parent wouldn’t want to ensure their child is looked after? It’s what any “reasonable person” would do.

But for any lockdown to be effective we must ask people to go beyond what is “reasonable”. There are countless well justified reasons to break the rules, but we must resist them. If rule breaking becomes widespread, we all lose, because we won’t slow down the rate of infection.

In this sense, the lockdown can be seen as a type of “public good”. We all benefit from an effective lockdown. As individuals, we each benefit more from everyone playing by the rules than we do from simply obeying them ourselves even though keeping to the rules also has some small personal benefit.

In this scenario – the one, remember, that we’re all in together – the temptation to cheat is strong. Would it really harm the lockdown if we took one journey to ask our relatives to help out on a particularly difficult week? We’d get the benefits of reduced community transmission (because everyone else is doing their bit) at the same time as doing what is better for us in the short term.

That’s what Cummings did. Luckily, most of us didn’t; we played by the rules and, together, we have managed to get the coronavirus pandemic just about under control.

Some of the fury unleashed on Cummings and on the Conservatives who are supporting him comes from comparing our own personal sacrifices to Cummings’ disregard for the collective good.

Despite the remarks of senior Tories rushing to defend Cummings, we know that if a large number of people had behaved like he did the lockdown strategy would have been seriously impaired – and there would be no overall public good. Even more people would have died. That why Conservative MPs called for the resignation of Professor Neil Ferguson when he broke the rules.

Crucially, the Tories’ strident support of Cummings shows us what they think about British people’s limited ability to do the right thing and observe the rules. Cast your mind back to February and March. Remember at the time the arguments that the UK should not go into lockdown too soon because of “behavioural fatigue”.

If you assume that every individual is selfish, then you also believe it will be impossible to sustain cooperation for any length of time. Temptation to cheat is always too strong. If you assume people will not play by the rules, will cheat, then you assume any lockdown will be limited.

If you assume people just care about themselves, are selfish – and so, they are just like you – then solutions that require large-scale cooperation are always going to be suspect.

This episode has revealed much about the Conservative view of the British public and how it has affected its plans for a response to the arrival of coronavirus on our shores. It’s not just a slavish devotion to the economy, of caring more about GDP than the elderly, that explains the UK government’s catastrophic handling of this pandemic. It’s also about how those in power see other people.

It’s a mirror in which we can see their assumptions reflected. And it is ugly. Gone is the warmth, and compassion to other people. Gone is the humanity. What’s left is an empty shell.

We know that humans are extraordinarily cooperative. You don’t build a planetary-scale complex civilisation without also building incredibly rich social worlds in which trust and empathy are key.

This is why the Cummings lockdown breaking story really matters. Tackling coronavirus demands cooperation. We will only get through this by looking after each other and working for the common good.

Some of those in powerful positions in and around this government aren’t just unable to do that, they’re unable to even understand it.