Will we ever reach a point where Covid is no longer a threat to our everyday lives?

Are we there yet? The promised land of hybrid immunity, vaccine coverage and endemicity – where Covid-19 is no longer a threat to our everyday lives? Simply put: no.

Don’t get me wrong, we are in a far better, safer place than we were three years ago. I will always remember the dark shadow that Sars-CoV-2 cast in 2020 – this then-unknown virus, first devastating China, then Italy, and finally arriving on our shores. How would we cope?

Claps rang out, people rallied, national pride was buoyed – carrying us stoically through some of the toughest of times. And promises were made. Never again would we demand so much of our frontline workers. Never again would such a high cost be paid by our most vulnerable. Never again would we be so ill-equipped for a pandemic.

There were many hard-learned lessons, but there was a modicum of comfort knowing that we could use this knowledge to help build what wasn’t there before: a robust plan of action to better prepare us for the next pandemic – investing in the people, the places and the policy to ensure that we would be better prepared for the next pandemic.

Yet, it seems we haven’t taken these lessons to heart (or head). Covid-19 positive cases appear to be rising. Thankfully, admissions to intensive care units (ICU) remain low, largely down to hybrid immunity and vaccine use.

Predicting what this virus will do next is made even more difficult as our surveillance systems have largely been disbanded, particularly in the UK. These tracking systems were crucial in identifying new variants and tracking case numbers in the UK, helping bolster the UK’s ability to tackle viral spread through targeted vaccination, shielding and changes in policy.

Vaccines still offer protection against the most serious of disease, with spring boosters being offered to our vulnerable communities: those aged 75 or over, care home residents and immunosuppressed individuals. Still, we have learned time and again that we need to track this virus carefully to distinguish if the current vaccine recommendations are enough. Without adequate surveillance systems, we will be left “watching and waiting” for hospital and ICU admissions.

Clawing our way out of the pandemic has been made all the more difficult due to the ongoing turmoil from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost of living crisis and many pressing socioeconomic matters.

However, the humanitarian and economic costs of Covid-19 are stark and should never be forgotten. Approximately 6.9 million people have died globally due to Covid-19. This figure is largely thought to be an underestimate, as estimated global excess deaths are between 17.5 and 29.7 million. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that the Covid-19 pandemic will cost the global economy $12.5 trillion through 2024.

Unfortunately, it seems that our leaders have yet to step up and ensure the sacrifices made and the lessons learned are not forgotten. We must embed these hard-learned lessons in our strategic planning, creating a blueprint to ensure we are better placed for when the next pandemic strikes.

Numerous important initiatives seek to consolidate learnings from Covid-19 and enable a more proactive response for the next pandemic. However, these initiatives need action and investment to adequately safeguard our future against the next pandemic. We must not falter and acquiesce to the old ways – we urgently need to bolster the strong science base in the UK and help build an international counterpart in low-and-middle-income countries, where pandemics have the most devasting consequences.

This can only be realised with multilateral collaboration between industry, academia, government, health care providers and NGOs. This requires investment, long-term well-maintained strategic core funding for critical infrastructure and the workforce who will deliver us from the next pandemic. The amounts needed are minuscule compared to what Covid-19 has cost us.

Meanwhile, pandemic threats keep coming. This year alone we have seen outbreaks from avian influenza with global spread, Ebola virus in Uganda, and Marburg virus in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania. Without more of a concerted effort to work together and invest in pandemic preparedness, we are sitting ducks for the next virus.

At a minimum, we should generate a well-maintained, coordinated national and international strategy for the next pandemic, support core public health capabilities and develop both national and international capacity for “surge manufacturing”.

Obviously, with a strong scientific base working in concert across academia, industry and government we can deliver this achievable ask. Building the infrastructure, investing in people and modifying policy to enable adequate pandemic preparedness is an insurance policy well worth the investment. We owe it to those who sacrificed so much during the pandemic to ensure their legacy is remembered, and we never ask so much again.

Professor Teresa Lambe OBE is a vaccine scientist and a key member of the Oxford Covid-19 vaccine team