Coronavirus may hit the Middle East hardest – not least because its citizens don't trust their governments

Authoritarian governments are perfect in the eyes of those that rule them. And if you ever say otherwise, the government’s first instinct is likely to punish you.

Outbreaks like coronavirus can cause problems for such states. Although they want to appear up-front about the spread of the virus, even if they do tell the truth, lack of public trust can be a major issue. It is a case of the boy who cried wolf.

Iran has faced a test of its transparency, and failed. However, many of its neighbours have not had an outbreak of the same severity. Many people in these countries are not sure if their own governments will tell the truth about the outbreak, or they will witness an Iran-like failure to do so.

In China, Beijing’s apparent fear of looking weak by revealing the true scale of its coronavirus epidemic enabled the virus to grow. It took China weeks to start rolling back the outbreak – though only by imposing almost complete isolation over many cities in the province of Hubei, with its 58 million inhabitants. The majority of Middle Eastern countries lack the health infrastructure and stringent system required to do the same.

For Middle Eastern governments, the first challenge of a coronavirus outbreak before containment will be communication. In many countries, the public doesn’t have even the slightest confidence that government-controlled media is telling the truth. The Egyptian government, for example, has faced an uphill struggle to convince its citizens that the country has only two confirmed Covid-19 cases.

This then generates a second challenge, of legitimacy. If a government cannot protect its citizens – be it against war, poverty or disease – people begin to question the government’s authority. In Iraq and Lebanon, for instance, citizens have been protesting for months to upend the ruling political establishment. But, it was mainly alleged corruption, unemployment and poor public services that triggered the first wave of protests.

The third challenge is that coronavirus will put Middle Eastern officials between a rock and a hard place. Since the start of February, oil prices have plummeted. Opec is expected to cut production further, while the Gulf states to bear the brunt of China’s industrial stagnation.

Egypt will soon feel the pain. With many Chinese factories left deserted exports and imports have slowed. Shipping in the Suez Canal, one of Egypt’s primary sources of foreign revenue, will likely contract in the short-term. Tourism destinations including Dubai, Tunisia and Morocco and Egypt (which derives 12 per cent of its GDP from tourism, much of it from Asia) will suffer, too, as travellers around the globe will wait for a clearer picture of the virus situation before booking their summer holidays.

In case of a major outbreak, the potential for any public debate about strategic decisions, such as closing the borders or isolating parts of the country, are slim. Indeed, many Middle Eastern citizens will be kept entirely out of the decision-making process when it comes to coronavirus.

Meanwhile, a Palestinian activist’s quip on social media that “Gaza’s siege by the Israeli occupation made it one of the most protected places” points to a final problem. Refugees and people in occupied territories or warzones like Yemen, Syria, and Libya would be the most vulnerable due to the dilapidated healthcare systems and lack of medicines, equipment and staff.

People in the region are terrified not by extensive media coverage of coronavirus, but rather because of the paucity of it. Nevertheless, one fact remains clear to many in the Middle East: if struck by coronavirus, this region will pay the highest price.