Labour is collapsing under the strain of Brexit – and pro-Corbyn MPs are considering life without their leader

Despite the Conservatives’ calamitous fifth place in the European elections and their divisive leadership election, Labour somehow managed to match their bad headlines this week. Its poor third place behind Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats came as a shock to Jeremy Corbyn, who was badly advised by aides about the likely impact of his “all things to all people” approach to Brexit.

It is very rare for the two main parties to be in such a mess at the same time. It won’t end while Brexit remains unresolved. A YouGov poll for The Times today puts the re-energised Lib Dems top for the first time in nine years.

A survey of 10,000 voters by Lord Ashcroft found that only 38 per cent of Labour’s 2017 stuck with the party in the European elections; 22 per cent went to the Lib Dems, 17 per cent to the Greens and 13 per cent to the Brexit Party. Corbyn needs to get off the fence and there is only one way to jump.

Ominously, only 56 per cent of 2017 Labour voters say they will back the party at a general election; 51 per cent of those who voted Lib Dem will stay with them.

The European elections were not Labour’s only bad headlines. The Equality and Human Rights Commission confirmed it would launch a formal inquiry into allegations of antisemitism inside Labour, a terrible indictment. It can’t say it wasn’t warned.

Labour’s response? A distraction, and the expulsion of Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair’s former communications director, a tribally loyal Labour figure who voted Lib Dem to try to push Corbyn into a tougher Brexit stance. The move backfired: Campbell was not alone, Labour was telling many of its supporters they were wrong.

Campbell told BBC Radio 4 today that senior Labour figures Sir Keir Starmer, Shami Chakrabarti, John McDonnell, Tom Watson and Emily Thornberry all think his expulsion is “bonkers”. Corbyn would be wise to reverse it, rather than let this self-inflicted wound fester.

Corbyn allies talk about recreating the coalition that deprived the Tories of their overall majority in 2017, a remarkable achievement. But the coalition evidently does not include “Blairites”, a hate word. The world has moved on since 2017. The failure to sort Brexit has entrenched it as the new dividing line in politics, rather than traditional class-based loyalty. But Labour hasn’t moved on.

Understandably, Corbyn aches for a general election to reprise his 2017 campaign on austerity and inequality. He was prepared to take a hit at the European elections in the hope of being able to appeal to both Remainers and Leavers at a general election.

There’s only one problem: an election is now “highly unlikely”, as McDonnell admitted on Monday. The Tories may be in disarray but they are not stupid enough to allow one to happen when Farage poses them an existential threat.

McDonnell’s intervention was Labour’s most important of the week. Some Labour MPs thought Corbyn’s closest ally was preparing the ground for him to unequivocally support a Final Say referendum. But he wasn’t; he was trying to push the Labour leader over a line he stubbornly refuses to cross.

In a familiar cycle, there were reports that Corbyn was about to come out for a referendum in all circumstances. Corbyn’s language was certainly warmer. Perhaps he wanted to say it, but the form of words agreed with his closest advisers stopped short. Shadow cabinet members believe they are holding him back.

Corbyn told ITV News during a visit to Ireland: “If parliament comes to an agreement then it’s reasonable, if parliament wishes it, there should be a public vote on it. But that is some way off.” He knows there is no Commons majority for a Final Say vote yet, and makes no commitment to trying to create one.

He also sidesteps growing demands from his party for Labour to support Remain in any referendum, leaving open the option of campaigning for a Labour soft Brexit. Good luck with that given the strong pro-Remain views of Labour members.

Despite the shock therapy of the European elections, the leader who promised “straight talking, honest politics” in 2015 is still shilly-shallying on the biggest crisis facing the country since the Second World War. If he doesn’t show leadership soon, the decision will be taken out of his hands at Labour’s annual conference in September, which will likely back a referendum and Remain.

“The dam will burst,” said one Labour MP. “It is now wider than Brexit; it’s about him. Sometimes voters form a judgment that a leader is not up to the task, and there is no way back. It happened to Gordon Brown and Theresa May. It is happening to Jeremy now.”

Even natural allies warn Corbyn that “we can’t fudge our way out of the Brexit mess”, as Laura Parker of Momentum put it. Some pro-Corbyn MPs believe his project is collapsing under the severe strain of Brexit, and are starting to wonder what Corbynism would look like without Corbyn.