Six months into the war in Gaza, the Tories are hopelessly divided over Israel

For six months, the divided Conservatives have enjoyed the rare luxury of being united on the Israel-Hamas conflict. In contrast, Labour could not disguise its split, as many of its MPs urged Keir Starmer to take a stronger line against Israel over the horrific events unfolding in Gaza.

Now the boot is on the other foot. After the killing of seven aid workers in Gaza, Labour is broadly united in calling for the UK to end arms exports to Israel if the government’s legal advice says the country is breaching international humanitarian law. (Even now, Labour’s line is still more cautious than that of the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Greens, who have called for an unconditional ban.)

Labour’s traditional support for the Palestinian cause created a headache for Starmer, while the Tories’ once-loud Arabist wing has long been quiet. The Conservatives are an overwhelmingly pro-Israel party, and the Conservative Friends of Israel is a very influential lobby group.

But the Tories are now split over arms sales to Israel. Rishi Sunak is under pressure from some Tory MPs and peers to impose a ban, though they are in a minority. Alan Duncan, a former Foreign Office minister, lifted the lid on a simmering Tory dispute by calling for a ban in The Independent. He could be expelled from the party after he used subsequent radio interviews to call for action against pro-Israel Tory “extremists”, including cabinet ministers.

Duncan was in turn accused of promoting “classic antisemitic tropes” by claiming that some parliamentarians are “doing the bidding” of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister.

Duncan never pulls his punches on Israel, but he timed his intervention in The Independent well given the worldwide revulsion at the aid workers’ deaths. Expelling him from the party would send a terrible signal to the British public.

Tory divisions extend to the cabinet. Sunak is wary about an arms ban, but David Cameron is heading in that direction, while other cabinet ministers want the PM to stop the foreign secretary in his tracks. Although the view of the Foreign Office, in a legal context, seems to be hardening against Israel, Cameron has gone unusually silent – another sign of a split. But he told today’s Daily Mail that he and Sunak are “entirely on the same page”.

Sunak normally gives Cameron free rein; one reason the PM brought him back was to limit the hours he himself has to dedicate to foreign affairs in an election year. Cameron is highly rated by British diplomats, who think his clout as a former prime minister could help to achieve the UK’s goal of punching above its weight. “He is confident in his own skin, and clearly wants to make his mark before his time runs out,” one official told me.

It’s no coincidence that a band of former senior Foreign Office officials have hinted in public at what Cameron is probably edging towards in private – a ban on the sale of arms to Israel.

The foreign secretary has been ahead of the international and domestic curves in criticising Israel’s tactics in Gaza – to the frustration of both the Labour MPs who want Starmer to go further and the Tories who think Cameron has gone too far. Sunak might be influenced by Israel’s willingness to share vital intelligence on other Middle Eastern countries – something that pro-Israel Tory MPs argue helps keep Britain safe from terrorist attacks. Whitehall insiders point out that intel flows in both directions, so Israel would not necessarily cut those channels off after an arms ban.

Officially, the government is still waiting for legal advice on whether Israel is breaching international humanitarian law. It argues that such advice should remain confidential, but there have been exceptions – for instance, in relation to the 2003 Iraq war, and to Brexit in 2018. Whatever the legal and political factors, the government could and should take a moral stance immediately. If not now, when?

Although it would be largely symbolic given the small quantity of arms Britain sells to Israel, a UK ban would matter given our status as a key ally. Sunak and Cameron should work with EU countries to impose a Europe-wide ban. Joe Biden’s landmark decision to make US support for Israel conditional on the country taking steps to “address civilian harm” and “humanitarian suffering” in Gaza should give Sunak more room for manoeuvre.

The prime minister’s caution over taking such a step is partly due to pressure from pro-Israel MPs. Predictably, his right-wing critics, such as the Tory peer David Frost, are making unwavering support for Israel a test of his leadership as they gear up for another attempted coup after the 2 May local elections. Though the results will be the main driver, an arms ban might persuade some Tories to call for a vote of confidence in Sunak as party leader. His weakness in his own party shouldn’t determine UK foreign policy, yet it is influencing it.

Support for Israel will also be a litmus test in the next Tory leadership contest, whether it comes before or after the general election. Suella Braverman is already making her pitch on the issue.

The Tories, already deeply divided on the domestic agenda, have managed to find something else to argue with themselves about. The party’s civil war now extends to a real war.