Tory MPs are loyal only to their careers, not to their leaders

If there is a plot, Iain Duncan Smith has lost it. The quiet man is in danger of being silenced completely – although it was a pity he didn't keep quiet when he had his tantrum in front of the rat-pack at Central Office. Until then, there were only "mutterings" about his leadership. There is now open speculation, however, not just of the possibility, but of the probability, of a motion of no confidence.

But this "unite or die" nonsense was all so unnecessary and the subsequent turmoil so utterly self inflicted – not least because it transpires that Tories in the Lords were actually on a free vote for the Adoption and Children Bill. My own test of the Richter scale of turmoil in the Tory party is based on the number of bids I get from the media, in any one day, to give live and recorded interviews. For the past week, apart from doing my day job for this newspaper, I have lived in the Millbank studios of the BBC, ITN and Sky. Producers are thinking of clubbing together to provide me with a camp bed. My earnings are, generally speaking, in inverse proportion to the health of the Conservative Party.

When I walked into our office in the press gallery, shouting my latest titbit gleaned from the Members' Lobby, I was told, "Shut up Michael; I am trying to watch what you're saying on Sky." Yesterday afternoon I bumped into Amanda Platell, Michael Dobbs, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and the ex-Tory MPs turned commentators Phillip Oppenheim and Jerry Hayes – all in the same studio.

The clincher as to whether MPs will make their move has nothing to do with plots – real or imagined. It comes down to whether an MP reckons he or she is going to hold their seat. So far, the Tories have had, believe it or not, remarkable luck. There has not, thankfully, been a by-election in any Tory-held constituency. If there were to be, I suspect it would be lost.

The 1990 crisis, which ended with the assassination of Margaret Thatcher, was caused as much by the loss to the Liberal Democrats of the by-election in Eastbourne (caused by the murder of Ian Gow by the IRA) as it was by the resignation of Sir Geoffrey Howe, the then Deputy Prime Minister. "I won't win my seat while she is still Prime Minister," wailed dozens and dozens of frightened, panicky MPs.

It will be the same again this time. We thought we had reached rock bottom in 1997, but 2001 was worse. Although the Tories gained nine seats, they lost eight more. The potential for further losses is considerable. In the current climate there is no such thing as a safe Conservative seat and very few sitting MPs have even 50 per cent of the vote. It is not inconceivable that many more could fall – mostly to the Liberal Democrats.

A friend called last week for advice on the approach he should take at a selection meeting he was attending at Bournemouth East. It has returned a Tory since time began. But the majority of nearly 12,000 in 1992 is now just over 3,000. "Are you sure you want to win this nomination?" I asked. I suspect he will not lose much sleep if he fails. The sitting MP has nothing to lose since he is retiring; and if there are another dozen or so who will also retire, Mr Duncan Smith has no sanction whatsoever over them.

But for those MPs seeking re-election, it is not the power of the local party chairman or the loyalty of party members to the leader that weighs most in considerations of support for Mr Duncan Smith. The raw view of what decision the wider electorate in the constituency is likely to take at the polling booths matters much more to an MP than loyalty to a leader.

It is a fair bet that most party members and constituency chairmen wanted Mrs Thatcher to remain as Prime Minister, but that did not stop MPs who voted for Michael Heseltine being willing to say so publicly – and there were no subsequent deselections by local parties after John Major eventually won. Indeed, great efforts were made by all concerned to stamp on any mutterings from constituency associations which were unhappy that their MPs had not voted for the lady. This is why it is so ridiculous that the leadership should be inciting party activists to mutiny against their MPs.

The idea of the Rushcliffe constituency party activists being encouraged by Mr Duncan Smith to rise up against Kenneth Clarke, their MP for more than 32 years, is preposterous. Lectures on loyalty from the Maastricht rebel are not likely to go down too well with Mr Clarke.

And the same goes for the likes of Anthony Steen. Mr Steen faced a Liberal Democrat challenge last year in his Devon constituency. Because of his personal popularity, he was one of the few to be returned with an increased majority. His local party knows that without him they would lose. What is more, they adore him and regard him as a local hero. Imagine the headlines all over the national – and local – press if, in addition to the current turmoil, the media were able to gorge themselves on stories of MPs' facing deselection.

I watched with a mixture of unmitigated pleasure and horror as good Labour MPs suffered this fate in the 1980s. In those days the pressure came from the local extremist Militant members in the constituencies. But for the current Tory leadership to be actively inciting such a process borders on madness.

Who of sane mind, if Mr Duncan Smith eventually bites the dust, would want to take on the Tory leadership? Last year, I backed David Davis. Next time, if a vacancy occurs this side of the general election, I think I will be doing him a favour if the advice I give him is to go nowhere near the job. I certainly detect no desire from him, anyway, that he wants to take over.

And frankly, both the other big contenders, Ken Clarke and Michael Portillo, must occasionally wonder why anyone would want to do the job. A full-blown contest would surely be as damaging as letting the present situation drift for a little while longer. So I think we may be back to the old days of the "magic circle" when the leader "emerged". This last happened in 1963 when Sir Alec Douglas Home took over from Harold Macmillan.

MPs are bitterly regretting the system whereby the final choice is in the hands of the members. They have the power to fire but not to hire. Perhaps, if Mr Duncan Smith either resigns or is sacked, they will decide, in smoke-filled rooms, that there will be only one nomination to be submitted to Sir Michael Spicer, the chairman of the 1922 Committee.

Minders for Clarke, Portillo, Howard, Ancram, Davis – and anybody else who may fancy their chances – should sit down in a locked room and decide among themselves who is the favoured man. The single nomination paper should then be signed by every Tory MP. The National Party Convention would then be informed that only one candidate has been proposed and that he has been elected, unopposed, by the parliamentary party. Tories – MPs and party workers – simply cannot be trusted with democracy.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk