There are welcome signs in Harare of an end to Mugabe's tyranny

My friend in Harare sounded at the end of his tether. In the past week the fuel queues have started to snake along city streets and meat stocks have been vanishing from supermarket shelves. The agony that was until now confined to the countryside is beginning to creep into the capital. "The atmosphere is terrible," my friend said. In the past few days, government officials have raided the homes of Asian businesspeople whom it suspected of hiding foreign exchange. According to one newspaper report, some $18m was confiscated. The same newspaper also reported that 40 families had been driven off farmland in the east of Zimbabwe. These were farm labourers accused of supporting the opposition and the raid was allegedly led by a police inspector. There were 22 children among those forced on to the side of the road.

On the international front the Zimbabwean government has just banned the Secretary General of the Commonwealth, Don McKinnon, from entering the country. Mr McKinnon is one of the most fair-minded and rational figures around; the decision to exclude him suggests a regime that is suffering from growing paranoia. In the midst of this the English cricket team has decided it will play in Harare, a delegation having come to the conclusion that security will be guaranteed. (We will come later to Mr Mugabe's ideas about security.)

When I was last in Harare, about six months ago, petrol was plentiful and the restaurants were full. The city's élite ate and drank as in the best of times. Only the crowds of township residents gathering outside supermarkets in search of bread and maize suggested the onset of severe crisis. But ever since the disputed elections of last March, Mr Mugabe's regime has been edging towards doom. His extraordinary gift for manipulation, cajoling and bullying can no longer keep reality at bay. Among senior military officers the whisperings of discontent are getting louder.

To stay in power Robert Mugabe needs to be able to do two things: keep the military and party cronies compliant, with ill-gotten wealth, and the rest of the population terrorised, with violence and intimidation. But the army is now home from the Congo and a crucial source of loot has dried up. There have also been signs that Libya, the key supplier of Zimbabwe's oil, has had enough of Zimbabwe's president.

As for keeping the people terrorised, Mr Mugabe is reaching that point in the life of despotic regimes when the people may be starting to lose their fear. They sense that while the government is still dangerous, it is no longer invincible. This may help to explain the strange manoeuvrings of the past week in Harare. A retired army officer, Lieutenant Colonel Lionel Dyke disclosed that he'd had meetings with senior members of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change in order to facilitate a peaceful transition in Zimbabwe. Under the plan apparently touted by Dyke, the opposition would allow Mugabe an honourable exit and then refrain from forcing elections for two years. The country would be run in the interim period by Mr Mugabe's right hand-man, Emmerson Mnangagwa. According to the Zimbabwean press Mr Dyke has also made contact with Labour and Conservative politicians in London.

The leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, Morgan Tsvangirai, was having none of it. He denounced the plan and said it had been concocted by Britain and South Africa. The British have swiftly responded, saying they had no intention of trying to "neutralise" the democratic wishes of the people. Mr Tsvangirai's problem is that the MDC has been singularly lacking in direction or unity since the elections, but he may be close to the truth when he calls the proposed plan "unholy".

To understand why we need to go back a little in history, to the early years of the Mugabe government. Compared to the racist regime of Ian Smith that preceded him, Mr Mugabe certainly promised to be better. Education and healthcare were delivered for the masses and the government spoke of reconciliation with its former enemies. But, alas, that did not include black enemies. The people of Matabeleland who supported the party of Mr Mugabe's main black rival, Joshua Nkomo, stood in the way of a one-party state.

With South Africa's apartheid regime sponsoring a campaign of destabilisation in Matabeleland, Mugabe moved to crush Nkomo and his supporters. The regular army was deployed to attack the dissident guerrillas, while the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade was sent to sort out the civilians. Nobody disputes that dissidents were killing and wreaking havoc in parts of Matabeleland, but Mugabe used the dissident activity to launch a murderous campaign against the civilian population. Who was the politician who ran this campaign at his behest? Step forward Emmerson Mnangagwa, the man being touted as an interim prime minister.

At least 7,000 people were murdered, thousands raped, tens of thousands more beaten and tortured. In the second part of the campaign, Mugabe and Mnangagwa tried to starve the population into submission. Then, as now, food aid was used as a political weapon.

Also busy in the area was Lt. Col. Dyke, though his task was to concentrate on the military task: killing armed dissidents. He did, however, have this to say about the Fifth Brigade's operation: "You often have to be cruel to be kind. Had an operation like the Fifth Brigade not taken place that battle could have gone on for years as a festering sore. ... the fact is that when Fifth Brigade went in, they did brutally deal with the problem. If you were a dissident sympathiser you died. And it brought peace very, very quickly."

Such are the views of the man who now wants to negotiate an exit for Robert Mugabe. Lt. Col. Dyke is an apologist for crimes against humanity. His old boss and putative interim leader, Mr Mnangagwa, is a man who was an integral part of the chain of command for these crimes. It would be astonishing if Britain or South Africa were to be part of a plan to install him in power. It is more likely the case that Mugabe loyalists are floating the idea to see what kind of support it attracts. The answer is probably none.

Whoever takes over now will need to command popular support. Many of the most senior military figures are compromised by past services to Mugabe. Yet as the slide to disaster accelerates, it is the army that is most likely to force the President out. That is probably the most realistic explanation of the manoeuvrings of the past week. Lt. Col. Dyke does, after all, continue to maintain excellent contacts with his old military comrades. What they have not factored in is how the people or the political opposition will react.

The end is coming in Zimbabwe. The when, where and how will be decided by Zimbabweans. I would like to believe that it will be peaceful and democratic, but I wouldn't like to bet on it.

The writer is a BBC Special Correspondent