The enemies are still waiting in the wings

"Vulnerability" was the appropriate theme of the Tory conference. This was just as well since no one was more vulnerable, at the start, than Iain Duncan Smith. The Tory patient was near death and had to be put on a life-support machine when it was admitted to the conference centre for treatment. MPs can only hope that yesterday's speech by the leader has breathed new life into the party. Frankly, though, the delivery was funereal in tone, and I suspect the only phrase to be remembered will be "Do not underestimate the determination of a quiet man" – a line plagiarised from George Bush senior at his 1988 Republican Convention acceptance speech.

The noises off at the start of the week, following the Major/Currie affair, and other ghosts from the past, were laid to rest. The focus of attention turned to the speech by Theresa May, who became a new star in the Tory firmament. I owe Mrs May an apology, because I thought that, on the basis of her Commons performances against Stephen Byers, she would not be up to the job. She did, however, surpass herself and if her speech – advocating the selection of more women for winnable seats – is backed by results, she will have deserved the trust placed in her by the modernisers.

The challenge on candidate selection still depends on the ability to convince constituency activists. It is not yet clear whether the audience that cheered Mrs May to the rafters will co-operate voluntarily or whether some form of sanction will have to be imposed. Nevertheless, there is some chance that firm persuasion may deliver results. Francis Maude and his C-Change group believe that the simple test will be how many user-friendly women, ethnic and openly gay candidates will be selected to replace retiring MPs in safe seats.

In a sense, there have been two conferences going on this week. The one in the hall has undoubtedly been a success for the leadership, with useful themes on health, education and crime. Solid work has been done to follow up the original launch, at the Harrogate spring conference, of the "helping the vulnerable" campaign. There are still different views as to who the vulnerable are. If they live in sink council estates and cannot escape the sink comprehensive or buy their way out of the hospital waiting list, then the Tories may be rediscovering a market of once lifelong Labour voters who have now given up on politics in much the same way as a market was created for Labour voters who changed allegiance in the 1970s.

There does appear to be a common thread running through the approaches of Liam Fox at health, Damian Green at education and Oliver Letwin at home affairs, with the party clearly and irredeemably putting all its eggs into the public services basket. There is still a credibility gap, however, between the Tories' new-found belief in good free services and the perception that they can never match Labour's "caring" image. There are still confused messages about the past. On the one hand, there is the hint of a resumption of the Thatcherite agenda, on the other an acknowledgement that there is, after all, "such a thing as society". And it is not entirely clear exactly the Tories are still a party of tax cuts.

The discussions in the other conference – the fringe and the smoke-filled bars – centred on the fault lines in the party over the pace of modernisation. Many think that Mr Duncan Smith is a pragmatic moderniser. The litmus test of attitudes to Clause 28 suggests problems ahead. As he struggles to embrace the modernisers' agenda, he also runs the risk of alienating his original right-wing supporters in the Commons. Equally, there is a suspicion that the C-Change Portillo supporters will always be complaining about the pace of change and will therefore ultimately join forces with disaffected forces from the Europhiles.

This has been a good week, in the margins, for David Davis and Kenneth Clarke whose acolytes were dispensing bonhomie and glad-handing anyone in the media. Michael Portillo has been conspicuous by his low profile. His only engagement was with his constituency delegation. But far too many of his supporters from last year were keen to point out how much further on in the battle for modernisation the party would be if he were in charge. Do not write him out of the script yet.

But the battleground now shifts back to the MPs, many of whom are congenitally incapable of supporting one leader for more than a few months. Mr Duncan Smith knows that whenever he addresses the 167 Tory MPs, 112 of them did not support him. He deserves to be given a decent chance, but yesterday's speech will not have altered the view of his detractors. He constituency rescued his party from the meltdown of a week ago. I fear, however, that there will be little gratitude when parliamentary mutterings resume next week.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk