Why I applaud the rise of Joan Collins and her friends as a political force

How easy it is to despair about Britain's bizarrely erratic relationship with Europe. Supposedly pro-European ministers protest about their red lines, making the new constitution sound like a frightening monster that has to be tamed. Tony Blair succumbs to the hysterical demands for a referendum on a treaty that is far less significant than the one signed in Maastricht more than a decade ago.

How easy it is to despair about Britain's bizarrely erratic relationship with Europe. Supposedly pro-European ministers protest about their red lines, making the new constitution sound like a frightening monster that has to be tamed. Tony Blair succumbs to the hysterical demands for a referendum on a treaty that is far less significant than the one signed in Maastricht more than a decade ago.

The powerful newspapers are gearing up for another assault in advance of the next EU summit in July. Polls suggest that the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip) is soaring. Other European countries look on with an almost bewildered amusement. Here they go again, the Brits getting into a neurotic state about not very much at all.

We cannot go on like this for much longer. Something has to give. It is in this context that we should raise a glass to Joan Collins, Robert Kilroy Silk and the growing army of former Conservative MPs leading Ukip. They recognise that the crunch time is coming too.

Supporters of Ukip are deluded, fantasising about a Britain that did not exist and could not exist in the future, but they are honest in their conclusions. They want to pull out of the European Union. This is a position that will command some limited support. I am not surprised the party is climbing up the opinion polls.

Ardent Eurosceptics have reflected on the logic of their position and concluded rightly that they cannot argue for Britain to remain in the EU. They are opposed to the new constitution and appalled at the implications of Britain joining a single currency at some point in next century or two. Therefore they want nothing to do with this institution.

In being open about what they seek, Ukip's leading lights place fresh pressure on the Conservatives' current position. With considerable political skill, Michael Howard has adopted a tone that comforts his party's small number of pro-Europeans. Yes, he wants to be part of the European Union. There is no question about that. Mr Howard even consulted Ken Clarke about his recent speech in Berlin in which he set out his approach to Europe. Mr Clarke and a few others cling to this change of tone, this political lifeline for pro-European Tories. Yet the tone is at odds with the substance, as Mr Clarke knows deep down.

The Conservatives reject any revised EU constitution and seek to negotiate instead a much looser framework in which countries can pick and mix their way around. Mr Howard calls it "variable geometry", a deceptively grand and intimidating term for what in reality would be a form of anarchy. Even if the vision was workable, it cannot be realised because no other country in the EU happens to share it. The Conservatives seek to be at the heart of a Europe that does not exist. At least some of them do. I suspect that quite a few - the Bill Cashes, the John Redwoods - are closer to the Ukip position. They dare to reflect on the logical consequences of their arguments.

So the rise of Joan Collins as a political force helps pro-Europeans who know that ultimately the debate over the next 18 months will be over whether Britain remains in Europe or pulls out. Of course we should have moved on from that debate long ago, in 1973, or 1975 after the referendum, or in 1983 when Labour pledged to pull out in the election and was slaughtered, or in 1997 when a pro-European Prime Minister was elected. But for different reasons we have not moved away. We are still there asking the basic question. Do we want to be part of this?

Even now, Downing Street is wondering when the next onslaught will begin in the newspapers. Will the D-Day commemorations scheduled for next month be the cue for a barrage of jingoistic anti-European propaganda? Perhaps the European championships in Portugal will do the trick. One way or another, the gloves will be off in the build-up to the next European summit in July, the one that is likely to agree to a new constitution.

The view in senior government circles is that the odds are 60-40 in favour of an agreement this July. In the build-up, British ministers are dealing with two wholly irreconcilable and conflicting perceptions. Senior figures from other European countries cannot believe the fuss that the government here is making. They complain that it is like the worst days of Margaret Thatcher. This is how they see it: In preparing the draft constitution, the British won more concessions than any other country. What is more, it was a senior British diplomat, Sir John Kerr, who wrote the final document. And what has happened? British ministers have stormed in with more of their red lines. Britain keeps on coming back and asking for more.

That is not how it is seen in parts of Britain. Much of the media portray these ministers as weak-kneed, gullible fools dancing to the tunes of their European masters. It is therefore not altogether surprising when the likes of Jack Straw surfaces from his negotiations to declare on the BBC that he is "batting for Britain", as if he has been swatting away sinister opponents, rather than working constructively with partners.

There have been times when new Labour has been unnecessarily weak, hopelessly timid, in dealing with the Eurosceptic media. In the build-up to the 1997 election, for example, Tony Blair told The Sun that he "loved the pound". Why did he feel the need to utter such a preposterous banality when he was 20 points ahead in the polls? The tone of that election campaign constrained him when he was at his most authoritative, in the never- ending honeymoon after the first landslide. But I have some sympathy for his current predicament, leading the only government in the EU that faces such a sceptical opposition party supported by some of the most powerful newspapers in the world. No other leader in the EU faces such absurdly distorting pressures.

Even so, British ministers are in a stronger position than they probably dare to realise. The enlargement of the EU changes the dynamics, almost certainly in Britain's favour and to the detriment of the old Franco-German axis. For once, when Britain asserts its red lines, it will not be doing so in isolation. Sadly and embarrassingly, it will have more of these red lines than other countries, but in each case it will also have allies, no longer isolated in its ostentatious awkwardness. The strength of the British economy gives it a new authority in the EU in the same way that Germany acquired growing influence partly as a result of its economic power. In spite of Iraq, Tony Blair is still a big player in Europe, buttressed by a big and secure majority in the Commons and his experience as a long-serving political leader.

It would be an act of perversity to leave now, and yet as Ukip rightly suggest that is the only alternative route available to those who oppose all the key developments in the European Union. When voters come to realise the starkness of the choice, it will be the Eurosceptics who are in despair.

s.richards@independent.co.uk