It just doesn't stack up. Why would Blair walk straight into a media trap?

Step aside Agatha Christie. "The Death of the Queen Mother" has the ingredients of a classic whodunnit. For a start, there is the subtle twist that the body itself is a red herring. As far as we know, the Queen Mother died of natural causes. Of course, we cannot take this entirely for granted. There may be a "killer memo" from Black Rod that suggests she was seen off by an official in Tony Blair's office.

But that would be too obvious, a plot in which the old lady was attacked by someone wielding lead piping in the ballroom at Windsor Castle. Instead, we have a more compelling tale about whether Mr Blair and his officials tried to hijack her funeral for their own ends, an allegation almost as grave as murdering the old lady.

Like all good whodunnits, the allegation has a whiff of authenticity about it. Hercules Poirot would be hugely troubled by the many trails. As Boris Johnson, the editor of the Spectator, noted in a column last week, Mr Blair likes the limelight. He and his advisers remain as obsessed by the media as they were in opposition. There were many calls from Downing Street to Black Rod's office. Bingo! It all adds up. It all makes sense. An egocentric, vain Prime Minister tries to steal the show on the day a tearful nation was mourning the Queen Mother.

Mon ami, it all seems so simple, but my little grey cells tell me this version does not make any sense. I have been an imbecile. All along the real story has been in front of our eyes.

The first clue of the real story comes in that apparently damning article from a triumphant Boris Johnson. He makes the point that no one had suggested that Mr Blair himself phoned up Black Rod to manipulate the funeral plans. Mr Johnson then adds: "What has been proved is that Blair's private secretary did make phone calls that were construed as having that purpose." Even at his moment of apparent vindication Mr Johnson does not claim that the phone calls did have that purpose. He suggests that this is how they were interpreted by Black Rod's office, leaving open the possibility that they may have been misinterpreted.

There is another clue, one that has been ignored in the current frenzy. The unquestioned implication of the allegations is that an attempt by the Prime Minister to promote himself at the funeral would have played well in the media, that he saw the event that had reduced parts of the nation to tearful reverence as a photo opportunity and a chance to get on the TV.

Mon ami, let us consider this for a moment. Imagine if he had strolled down towards Westminster Abbey, shaking hands with mourners, or appeared with that almost tearful expression of his in a prominent position in the abbey itself. In the current climate – where royals are deified and elected politicians are loathed – the media would have crucified him. What is more, Alastair Campbell and Mr Blair himself would have realised that the media would crucify him. A much more likely conversation in the siege-like atmosphere of Downing Street would have been: "Tony, keep a low profile on this one. If you're seen to get any attention, the Daily Mail will slaughter you".

This is the point about spin. It is essentially a defence mechanism from a government that is still terrified of the power of the media. This is what the BBC, parts of which are obsessed with spin, does not seem to realise. Yet here is another twist: the BBC should recognise this better than any other institution because of its own role in this glorious plot. After the royal death the Daily Mail and other newspapers attacked the BBC for not being reverential enough. Help! What do we do? BBC executives – used to a quiet life of meetings and writing memos to each other – panicked and gave the Daily Mail what it wanted. It is not easy being in the line of fire.

There is one final clue. Normally, Mr Blair and his entourage are wary of taking risks. The single currency is rarely discussed these days. Only recently did they dare talk about taxes. Yet we are being asked to believe that they were happy to throw caution to the winds on this one, and take the massive risk of re-arranging the Queen Mother's funeral for their own gain. They were found out, and then proceeded to take another massive risk by bringing in the Press Complaints Commission, even though they knew they were guilty. I do not believe it.

But this is a multi-layered thriller. Nearly everyone will believe the alternative version for ever. This is partly because Messrs Blair and Campbell have undermined their credibility in the past by seeking dramatic headlines for puny policies or, in some cases, for policies that will never be implemented at all. But other agendas are at play here. Conservative newspapers are trying to undermine the duo, partly to prevent them having the authority and confidence to hold a referendum on the euro. If the voters do not trust the Prime Minister – or Mr Campbell, whose task it would be to mastermind the media strategy – a referendum campaign is doomed. Parts of the BBC have convinced themselves that nearly all politicians are conniving, lying bastards and, because that is not in any way a "partisan" position, seem to think this is perfectly acceptable. They have brainwashed themselves.

Of course, the Government is partly to blame for the mess. Instead of being in a near-permanent state of fury, Charles Clarke and others should remember that they have won two successive landslides, and make the most of it.

But, in turn, the media reaction to the way a government tries to present its case is preposterous. I could be a millionaire by now if I had agreed to every proposal to appear in programmes about spin. The media is more obsessed with spin than the Government is. Look at what has happened to the supposedly powerful spin-doctors and the media-obsessed ministers. Jo Moore is out of work and will never get a media-related job again. Peter Mandelson has been sacked twice. Stephen Byers has gone, wondering whether he has been permanently destroyed. Charlie Whelan was pushed out long ago. Alastair Campbell lies injured behind the scenes, unable to utter a word without it being labelled as more spin. Parts of the media are in a self-righteous state about spin, but it is the media that is still standing, causing mayhem, while the bodies of blood-spattered spin-doctors and ministers are being carried off the stage on a daily basis.

Mon ami, this is almost the end of the story. Everyone is pointing at spin-doctors and media-obsessed politicians, but they are almost as dead as the poor Queen Mother. The end of the story will come when the Government is finally killed off completely. It could even happen at the next general election. Yes, "The Death of the Queen Mother" has several more years to run.