Face it, we will join the euro. And when we do, the world will not end

Is it a man? Is it a plane? No it's super-euro. The single currency, nothing more than a coin or a note, is starting to acquire magical, even mystical powers. Apparently it will secure Tony Blair's "place in history", make or break Gordon Brown's leadership ambitions and destroy the seemingly indestructible confidence of Britain's xenophobic newspapers. Before very long the euro will determine whether England can ever win the World Cup or send astronauts to Mars. No wonder Hitler is getting in on the act.

In all the excitement it is easy to forget that Britain is having to decide whether to join a currency, and that we will be affected almost as much if we stay out as if we go in. It is a big decision, but it is not that big a decision.

The impression that entry is so monumental in its significance serves the anti-euro campaign: if it is so monumental, capable of bringing down prime ministers, destroying the Daily Mail and sending us all to Mars, why take the risk? Surely it is safer to stay where we are. At first I thought it was a crass mistake of the anti-euro campaigners to bring Adolf Hitler into the debate, as they have done in their cinema advert. Certainly, the "Britain In Europe" campaign was toasting the apparent error, and it has not had much to toast recently. But I am not so sure. The more they can convince voters that this is so big, so preposterous, the better for them.

So here is the reality. Mr Blair's enthusiasm is motivated partly by his "place in history". Those who work closely with him all testify to this. But he does not want to go down in history as the Prime Minister who lost a referendum or blew an impressive economic record by joining at the wrong time.

Mr Brown's caution over the euro is seen as arising solely from his desire to win the leadership. This is not the case. If anything, Mr Brown's ambitions would be helped enormously if Mr Blair held the euro campaign as soon as possible and got his "place in history" out of the way. This caricature is anyway too crude. It suggests that the Chancellor is no more than a cartoon character, happy to blow the economy if it propels him into 10 Downing Street. As for the frenzied right-wing newspapers, they will be back whatever happens. Two landslide Conservative defeats have hardly blunted their style. A referendum defeat would make them lie low for a bit, but not for very long.

Step back from the panic-inducing urgency of it all and let us consider our real relationship with this mesmerising coin. The polls suggest that a big majority of voters regard Britain's entry as inevitable at some point. Voters do not make this observation with wild, fearful eyes and shaking hands. They are relaxed about it. Even some senior figures in the Tory party, not normally regarded as ardent Europhiles, have made it clear that entry will be desirable at some point. John Major is one of those. The "never" school is limited to Margaret Thatcher, Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood.

The position of the Government is also much more solid than that of the Conservatives in the build-up to Britain's disastrous entry into the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Then a Chancellor and a Foreign Secretary advocated entry, and the Prime Minister was furiously opposed. The timing of Britain's entry was determined solely by when Mrs Thatcher could be persuaded to change her mind. Now Mr Blair and Mr Brown agree that Britain should join the euro. I do not believe that the Chancellor has become a "never" politician. And I am certain that he has not become a "never" politician in the hope that this will give him the leadership.

So the sweat, the panic, the mysticism of the coin all comes down to timing. Now the timing of it is a big decision. In recent weeks the prime Minister and his senior advisers have discussed the nature of the campaign and possible dates – with the autumn of next year being the favoured option. It is also possible that even if the famous review of the economic tests is negative in the first instance, the door will not be firmly shut for the rest of this term. Rather like Bob Dylan's "never-ending concert tour" we could have a never-ending review, until all those conditions have been met.

In my view a referendum this term would, politically, be the safest and most desirable option. A further delay would mean more ministerial equivocations, more destabilising speculation and additional time for the No campaign to have the terrain to itself. Still there is no getting away from it. There are genuine economic issues to be resolved over the timing. Five years ago the economic conditions were useful fig-leaves protecting an inexperienced and timid government from the political obstacles. Now there are real issues, not least rising house prices.

As I argued here two months ago, housing is the hidden time bomb for this government. As prices soar, public services are jeopardised in some parts of the country. As far as the euro is concerned, it makes a necessary drop in interest rates far less likely. Lower interest rates would lead to an even more rampant price boom. House prices will be a bigger factor over the timing of euro entry than the Blair/Brown relationship, Rupert Murdoch or prime ministerial places in history.

But we should not get too hung-up about timing. The panic over timing reminds me of the furore surrounding the postponement of the general election last year because of the foot and mouth disease. It seemed momentous when a May election was postponed until June. Tony Blair greyed visibly. We political observers went apoplectic with excitement. But the Government was always going to win – May, June or October – in the same way that Britain will fairly soon join the single currency, even if the referendum is not in the next 12 months.

We will join. When we join the world will not end; nor will we all be transported to a sunny paradise where we can drink wine and eat olives after a swim in a warm Mediterranean sea. Britain will be more secure as part of a powerful currency. There will be significant benefits and, if the timing is right, few risks. Already economic policies are constrained by the performance of the euro and the dollar. Membership will be a formal pooling of a sovereignty that is already informally pooled – nothing less than that, and nothing more. To suggest otherwise is to give the anti-euro campaign more ammunition than it deserves. The euro is more Clark Kent than Superman.