The Sketch: Howard score-draw is a victory for Blair

Death therapists tell us we have to go through discrete stages before we can accept extinction. Perhaps that's why the pathology of recent Tory leaders has been so similar. It starts with denial ("Of course we can win the next election. I swear we can."). Then anger ("What's the matter with people out there. Idiots. Fools. They're being conned. No one believes a word he says"). Then bargaining ("If we get some good policy out we can win the next election, surely. We'll abolish waiting lists, increase public spending and reduce taxes"). Then depression ("Nobody cared about our policy; and they nicked all the best bits. We need to be 12 points ahead to win the next election and we're only level pegging, we've had it this time and next time, we've had it for 10 years."). And finally, peaceful acceptance of the inevitable.

Death therapists tell us we have to go through discrete stages before we can accept extinction. Perhaps that's why the pathology of recent Tory leaders has been so similar. It starts with denial ("Of course we can win the next election. I swear we can."). Then anger ("What's the matter with people out there. Idiots. Fools. They're being conned. No one believes a word he says"). Then bargaining ("If we get some good policy out we can win the next election, surely. We'll abolish waiting lists, increase public spending and reduce taxes"). Then depression ("Nobody cared about our policy; and they nicked all the best bits. We need to be 12 points ahead to win the next election and we're only level pegging, we've had it this time and next time, we've had it for 10 years."). And finally, peaceful acceptance of the inevitable.

Michael Howard hasn't achieved that last stage but he seemed remarkably calm with his score draw yesterday. But a draw is a loss. Recently, Mr Howard can do no better than draw; Mr Blair has got the measure of him. Mr Howard has become predictable. This is death. Soon he will have to retire to that box he sleeps in and wait for Mr Blair to come round with the stake.

At the very least, Mr Howard could have some snap prepared for situations he knows will arise. The Prime Minister frequently doesn't answer questions. You may have noticed this. You may also have noticed that dogs bark, cats purr and night follows day. Mr Howard complains in the slightly whiny way Conservative leaders have for years now: "He hasn't answered the question!" What do you expect? Wake up, man. And again, here follows the only attack that works on Blair, because it works on his only real weakness: the taut and fraught relationship he has with old Labour.

"I want to defend the Prime Minister from some of his critics. Valiant young man leading his party into the Conservative middle ground. He knows Tory values are the ones that work. Freedom for public providers - Tory idea. Foundation hospitals - Tory idea. City Academies - Tory idea. Choice - Tory idea. Private money in schools. Private money building hospitals. Private money in the Tube. Private money in roads. Private medicine in health. Billions of it.

"Welcome, Tony. You are reaching out to friends. Were it not for the deadweight on your back bench you could be more honest about it all and do it properly. You've had to compromise and, more in sorrow than in anger, I have to say you've made a pig's ear of the reform programme because you haven't been bold enough. But don't worry. We know what you mean. When we get in, we'll finish the job for you, and I know that in your heart you'll be cheering us on."

With Mr Howard's genuine, unflinching support, Mr Blair would find it very hard to last more than six months.

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