Simon Calder: The rational tourist should not be afraid

Life is simple. You try to maximise happiness and postpone death. Unfortunately, these two aims often conflict, as anyone who has tried to climb Everest or run with the bulls in Pamplona will testify. So the wise tourist must apply risk management. The nightmare of Saturday's attack on a club in Bali will haunt the families and friends of the victims for years. It will also scare away thousands of prospective visitors, not just to the formerly peaceful island but to the entire Indonesian archipelago. And millions of people whose usual destinations are far from the butchery in Bali may decide a foreign holiday is a risk too far. If a tranquil isle can suffer such a grave attack, where in the world can be safe?

Life is simple. You try to maximise happiness and postpone death. Unfortunately, these two aims often conflict, as anyone who has tried to climb Everest or run with the bulls in Pamplona will testify. So the wise tourist must apply risk management. The nightmare of Saturday's attack on a club in Bali will haunt the families and friends of the victims for years. It will also scare away thousands of prospective visitors, not just to the formerly peaceful island but to the entire Indonesian archipelago. And millions of people whose usual destinations are far from the butchery in Bali may decide a foreign holiday is a risk too far. If a tranquil isle can suffer such a grave attack, where in the world can be safe?

That question is as misguided as it is rhetorical, but it is typical of an attitude that has prevailed since 11 September 2001. I sympathise with those whose fear of flying increased when they saw the terrible consequences of a plane hitting a building, live on television. But to fret about flying makes about as much sense as worrying about contracting Ebola fever. On European, North American and Australasian airlines, there is so small a risk statistically that it should form no part of a decision about where – or whether – to travel.

A rational tourist knows that of the 450 or so British people who die abroad of non-natural causes each year, the chart-toppers are always the same. They have nothing to do with terrorism, nor diseases that destroy your vital organs. Road accidents claim between 150 and 200 lives – a high proportion of them in France and Spain. Many of the victims may be unaware that Britain is an uncommonly safe place. As soon as you cross the Channel, the chances of dying in a car crash double, which is a good reason for travelling on the fatality-free French high-speed rail network.

Drownings and other "accidents at sea" account for around 100 deaths of British people abroad. Many of these are alcohol-related. For too many tourists, "don't try this at home" becomes "try anything while away"; heavy drinking and a midnight swim do not mix. When we transform ourselves from rational human beings to holidaymakers, there is a tendency to cancel common sense and caution along with the milk and newspapers. We set off in the fond but mistaken belief that a plane ticket and a Rough Guide confer some kind of touristic immunity.

One in 10 of British visitors who come to grief abroad is murdered. A few – very few – are pawns sacrificed in some power struggle, but many are victims of economic crime – like the London graduate who died at the Great Wall of China two weeks ago, killed for the sake of his video camera.

Other leading causes of death are, brutally, when a traveller's luck runs out. Skiing and mountaineering claim half a dozen victims each year. On average, one British tourist dies each month from malaria contracted abroad.

So what is the anxious tourist to do? Some of the steps to prolonging life, such as taking routine health precautions, are obvious. Countries engaged in civil war should be avoided by all except the mentally unstable and journalists. In places such as Egypt, where tourists have been firmly in the firing line in the past, backpacking may be a wiser strategy than joining an organised tour group; but, with the benefit of hindsight, the converse has applied in Australia, where distressingly many backpackers have died at the hands of a serial killer, petty criminals and an arsonist with a grudge.

If your son or daughter has recently joined the gap-year exodus to south-east Asia and Australasia, you could be sick with anxiety right now. Parents with younger children may be worrying about the risks they perceive when their offspring decide to venture abroad, and may begin lobbying against travelling the world.

But there are two risks that are much greater than the threat of terrorism. The first is that the more humdrum dangers will be overlooked – a driving holiday in Portugal or Turkey is one of the more potent risks you or your loved ones could take. The other is that the potential for good offered by world travel will be sacrificed along with the innocents who died in Bali on Saturday night.

When the first passenger flight by a Jumbo Jet took off on 22 January 1970, it marked a step change in international tourism. The Boeing 747, more than twice the size of any existing aircraft, made air travel more accessible – boosting the economy of islands from Barbados to Bali. Certainly, by enabling more people to travel further than ever, it placed some tourists in uncomfortable or dangerous circumstances. Sometimes, as the relatives of the victims of Pan Am 103 know, the aircraft itself has been a target for those who seek to change the world by violence.

Changing the world by peaceful means is a better idea; and tourism is an essential element in making the planet a safer place to be, through increasing understanding. It is also great fun. The human inclination in the face of Saturday's outrage may be to retreat to the relative security of home. But in my experience, happiness increases proportionately with the distance from familiar surroundings.

"If al-Qa'ida don't get you", a veteran traveller of my acquaintance is fond of saying, "deep vein thrombosis probably will." Fortunately, he is wrong on both counts.

simon.calder@independent.co.uk