Sean O'Grady: This seems like good news – but the cuts will soon bite
It will be a miracle if employers suddenly decide, as the Chancellor claims, that Britain is 'open for business'
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Your support makes all the difference.Every silver lining has a cloud, they say, and what's happening in the world of work certainly qualifies for that description. It is "good news" that unemployment is down; it shows the recovery is delivering some jobs growth, although modest, and it might make us feel a bit more confident about the future. If so, you might not wish to read on.
For much of the fall in joblessness is really "BC" – Before Coalition, pre-emergency Budget and pre-the announcement of some 600,000 public sector jobs being shed over the next few years (courtesy of that Treasury leak).
Meanwhile, the private sector is not creating full-time "proper" jobs: an astonishing 1.6 million are temping while looking for something better – a version, I would say, of hidden unemployment.
Chances are that they are also in work way below their qualifications, let alone aspirations, and not adding much value to the economy. The former skilled fitter who winds up working in a bar is certainly better off than languishing on the dole getting more bitter and frustrated; but this is not the type of high-tech green job that is supposed to be driving Britain's second industrial revolution.
Employers, understandably, seem timid about taking staff on. They're as nervous as anyone about the strength and sustainability of the recovery, and it will be a miracle if they suddenly decide, as the Chancellor claims, that Britain is "open for business", and are persuaded to risk expanding the full-time payroll by the mere fact that the public finances might be coming under control. It just isn't happening.
Long-term unemployment has breached the three-quarters-of-a-million mark, and getting these people back to work – even part time – is notoriously difficult, especially as our "jobless recovery" progresses. There is bound to be a mismatch between public sector jobs being lost in, say, Coventry or Newcastle, and private sector jobs (such as they are) being created in Guildford or Cambridge.
Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high: 35.9 per cent for 16 to 17-year-olds, made worse by graduates taking school leavers' jobs they would not have dreamt of considering a decade or two back. If you have a "proper" job, hang on to it. A "jobs-lite" recovery indeed.
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