There is something we can do about Israel

Earlier this year, a survey showing that nearly two-thirds of Europeans thought that Israel was the biggest single threat to world peace caused outrage among Israelis, who claimed it as proof of rising anti-Semitism on the continent. That may or may not be. Most recent studies suggest that anti-Muslim sentiment far outweighs anti-Jewish feeling in France and Germany, and probably elsewhere.

But as a simple statement of fact it is no more than the truth. Solve the Palestinian issue and you have a hope of solving all sorts of other issues rending the relationship between the Muslim peoples and the West. Let that problem fester and explode and all the discussion of democracy which the West is trying to press on the Arab world at next week's meeting in Tunis, all Tony Blair's claims that his handshake in Tripoli was ushering in a new era of Arab alliance is so much humming in the hurricane.

Like it or not - and most governments just wish it would go away - Middle East peace is an international issue. And if anyone doubted that, they need only look at the killing this week of Sheikh Yassin and its aftermath.

The Israeli government would wish the argument over "targeted killing" to be seen entirely in terms of terror and counter-terror. The Middle East sees it in terms of Israel's contempt for international law and the West's hypocritical refusal to take them to task. A week of condemnation by virtually every international leader ended with what? A British abstention and a US veto on a UN resolution on Thursday condemning it. Little wonder that Prince Hassan of Jordan has talked of a "war of the worlds" if the West did not step in.

The Arabs are right on this. Assassination is more than just part of the game of tit-for-tat in the Middle East. It is a political act and has been ever since Israel started using it 30 years ago. It was aimed deliberately to destroy the PLO in the 1970s and 80s. It was employed to kill Abu Shanab, the only Hamas leader to espouse negotiations with Israel, just as peace talks were in the air last August. And this week we had the assassination of Sheikh Yassin, Hamas's spiritual leader, just as talk of an Israeli withdrawal from its Gaza settlements was dominating the airwaves.

It may be that the two were coincidental and that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon gave the order to fire solely as an act of decapitation of an enemy, regardless of its wider consequences. But it is more likely that Sharon knows perfectly well what he is doing. Unilateral withdrawal from Gaza is the first step in a plan, never spelt out but widely assumed, that would see Israel, having exited Gaza, withdraw behind a security fence that would encompass most of its settlements in the West Bank and leave the Palestinians with an unworkable residue of disconnected bits. It would relieve Israel of the problem of an Arab majority within its borders and fit in with Sharon's view of Israel's long-term security interests in secure borders and a fractured Palestinian state incapable of developing its own power. It would also leave the international community to pick up the pieces around it.

Killing so high a profile target as Sheikh Yassin is meant to cover a withdrawal from Gaza while the expected terrorist response will make it difficult for the international community to argue against the security fence. Contrary to the Arab inclination to see in all things Israeli a US plot, Washington is not part of this. A rapid escalation of violence is the last thing it wants at this moment. But, partly because it is in an election year, there is virtually nothing it can do about it. The killing of Sheikh Yassin kills off any remaining chances for the "road-map" and leaves the way open for Israel to pursue a pre-emptive course of its own.

Where the Arabs, and the increasingly nervous Europeans, are wrong is in accepting the despairing view that it is only the US that can do anything about it all. But because the US is now hog-tied by an election cannot be an excuse for Europe and the Muslim world to stand idly by in an issue so central to their own interests. Both have carrots as well as sticks. Europe has an association agreement with Israel and a Barcelona process of trade and investment that would bring it into a closer relationship with the EU together with its Arab neighbours. It would be perfectly reasonable for European foreign ministers to say now that if Israel cannot abide by the international rules it cannot expect to benefit from them.

In the same way, it is long since time that Jordan and Egypt suspended all diplomatic relations with Israel on the same grounds. On the other hand, the Arab world can offer universal recognition of Israel if it does seek a genuine settlement with the Palestinians. Two years ago, Saudi Arabia offered just such a deal - Arab recognition for Israel's withdrawal to the pre-1967 borders. Sharon simply ignored it then. But the plan, and the Geneva Accords agreed by centrist political figures from both Palestine and Israel, still holds the best chance for peace. It's either that or a growing bitterness and terror which will drag us all down with it.

a.hamilton@independent.co.uk