Adrian Hamilton: You can't blame the crisis on Opec this time

Then, there was at least some basis for blame, in that the Arab states had deliberately cut back exports to support the Palestinian cause in the Middle East war. Even so - and Heath never forgave the oil companies for sharing out supply between their international customers instead of favouring Britain - it was not the restoration of Opec flows that solved the crisis.

What resolved the energy crunch was a partial decoupling of economic growth and energy demand in the developed countries, brought about by high prices and the growth of North Sea and other non-Opec sources.

The situation today is different, at least on the part of the exporters. Opec isn't artificially restricting supply by much. Although it has a formal limit in force, the reality is that most producers are pumping flat out. It is doubtful that even Saudi Arabia can produce that much more, or that even its huge reserves can be relied on to produce ever higher volumes over the future.

For Gordon Brown to put it all on to Opec, as he did in his speech to the TUC on Tuesday, is deliberately to misrepresent the problem. The underlying cause of this crisis is the remorseless and entirely predictable rise in demand from China, India and other developing states.

For the past 30 years, the world has supplied rising demand from increased oil production, largely from non-Opec sources. We've now run out of that option, and the supply squeeze has been made all the worse at this point in time by the troubles in Iraq, which have held back output there, and a shortage of refining capacity around the world, intensified by the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf of Mexico facilities. Even if the exporters could produce more, it's doubtful that they could find the refineries to take it.

The Chancellor's demand that Opec (really the Gulf states) provide the remedy with higher output, transparency of reserves and applying revenue to new petroleum investment is not only an abrogation of responsibility on the consumer's part; it takes us back to the worst of the colonial view that the resources of the Third World are there for the West's use, at the price and quantity we determine.

Not the least reason for the US decision to invade Iraq was the ambition of Vice-President, Dick Cheney, and the Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to break the Opec cartel and to get away from US dependence on Saudi Arabia for its oil. In doing so, it has made the oil squeeze infinitely worse.

We've made plain our lack of faith in the world's largest exporter (Saudi Arabia), half-destroyed the industry of the country with the second largest potential reserves in the Middle East (Iraq) and decided to confront the country with the second largest exports (Iran). Not bad going for the beginnings of a major oil crisis.

Oil and politics can never be divorced. Not so long at any rate as there is such a huge mismatch between those who have it and those who consume it. For the producer it brings huge revenues but distorted economies. Few exporters have ever remained untainted by this "black gold". But for the consumer it bring intense problems of security of supply and vulnerability to price shocks.

Any responsible government now has to ask itself the same questions as were asked in 1973. Can price alone be relied on to find a way out of the squeeze? And if so, at what level and with what effect on economic growth? Or does it need government intervention in the market to force on alternatives and curb demand?

But the question consuming countries also have to face is how to approach the producers. If world oil production is really nearing its peak, as many predict, then the power is back in their handsand you have to ask whether it really is in their interest to keep pumping out a diminishing resource at this pace. Most of them, despite their huge wealth, have suffered both financially and socially during the period of rocketing followed by collapsing prices. Why should they now strain all to see the same cycle again?

Look after all at our own experience in the North Sea. The Norwegians controlled the pace of exploitation and are now enjoying the prospect of rising revenues long into the future. We, in contrast, decided to go for broke on production, expending the bulk of our reserves at the time of falling prices. Now our oil and gas have gone into decline just as prices are soaring.

If I were Mr Brown, I'd hesitate before lecturing other countries about what to do with their natural resources.

a.hamilton@independent.co.uk