Daily catch-up: through the looking-glass to the foreign country before 2159 hrs on 7 May 2015

Another book about an election dominated by opinion polls that pointed to a quite different result 

John Rentoul
Tuesday 17 November 2015 06:55 EST
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Exit poll on BBC News at 2201 on 7 May 2015
Exit poll on BBC News at 2201 on 7 May 2015

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Dan Hodges has written a book about the election called One Minute to Ten, which takes us back to that foreign land, the recent past, when nearly everyone apart from Hodges thought that there was going to be another hung parliament. It is a brilliant account of the election campaign, told in the form of flashbacks from the countdown to the publication of the exit poll just after 10pm on the night.

It mixes the imagined thoughts going through the minds of David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg with actual reportage, some of it from people inside the various campaigns. The account of Miliband rehearsing for the one TV debate in which he would engage with Cameron is telling. Apparently Tom Hamilton, a young Labour staffer, played the part of the Prime Minister, rather than Alastair Campbell, who was written up at the time as taking the role for debate prep.

"Oh! So you've admitted it. You are preparing to do a deal with Nicola Sturgeon," said Hamilton-as-Cameron. "You're just not prepared to let anyone know what it is yet."

"Oh, why don't you just fuck off, David ..." replied Miliband.

Hodges reports: "The room descended into laughter. 'I think you may have just lost the election there, Ed.'"

Miliband also struggled with Ayesha Hazarika, Harriet Harman's adviser, playing the part of Sturgeon. David Axelrod, Labour's American trophy consultant, inscribed a book to Hazarika: "If Nicola Sturgeon is half as good at debating Ed as you are, we're in trouble."

And so they were.

In one sad vignette of the aftermath, Hodges reports that, when Miliband flew off to Ibiza for a break with his family two days after resigning as Labour leader, "members of his staff continued to receive regular phone calls, urging them to 'protect the legacy'".

Friends who spoke to him immediately after his return all listened to the same analysis. The media had traduced his message. The SNP surge – which no one could have predicted – had made victory impossible this time. He was planning to set up a new think tank committed to tackling social injustice and promoting the agenda they had developed during his time as Labour leader.

It is a colourful and convincing account, although it is sometimes hard to tell speculation from fact. Together with Tim Ross's Why The Tories Won it tells the story of the election well. Now, we are waiting for the big one, Philip Cowley and Dennis Kavanagh, The British General Election of 2015, to be published next month. I have read part of an advance proof and can confirm it will be worth the wait.

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