Brexit, one year to go: Labour could still shape the terms of Britain’s exit deal

Jeremy Corbyn is sometimes acclaimed by his supporters as “the real prime minister” who won a moral victory at the election. They have a point, because the Labour leader is a power in the land. He is, for example, one of the few people who have the power to shape Brexit.

It could be argued that he, Nigel Farage, David Cameron, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson each could have tilted the referendum vote the other way. If Corbyn had led a full-throated Labour campaign for a Remain vote, it is possible that the outcome could have been different.

And now Corbyn is the one person who could possibly stop Britain leaving the EU. It is unlikely to happen, because it would need a big shift in public opinion, much bigger than the slight drift towards thinking Brexit is the wrong decision that the polls have reported so far – and it would also need a change in Labour policy.

It would require the opposition in parliament to seek another referendum on the outline terms of the post-Brexit deal – and that depends on Corbyn. However, much to the disappointment of many Labour Party members, he seems determined not to budge.

Corbyn caused consternation among pro-EU Labour MPs on the morning after the referendum by saying: “The British people have made their decision. We must respect that result, and Article 50 has to be invoked now, so that we negotiate an exit from the EU.”

It turned out that the Labour leader didn’t mean “now” as in “today”. He simply meant “at some point”. But by accepting Brexit he provoked his MPs into launching a challenge to his leadership. He won easily, despite 88 per cent of Labour members having voted Remain.

For a politician who has built his career on authenticity, Corbyn had already taken a risk by tempering his longstanding Euroscepticism in order to campaign, tepidly, for Remain in the referendum. So he is most unlikely to shift again – especially as his current position of accepting Brexit is consistent with his political history.

So, although 78 per cent of Labour members want another referendum, they are most unlikely to get it. That does not mean, however, that Corbyn and Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, have no influence over the course of Brexit over the next year.

There is an energetic campaign among Labour backbenchers to keep Britain in the EU single market, which is backed by 87 per cent of party members. MPs such as Heidi Alexander and

Chuka Umunna argue that Britain should be like Norway, outside the EU but still integrated economically. This would help to solve the Irish border problem and it would achieve Theresa May’s objective of “frictionless” trade between the UK and EU.

However, it would also mean the UK would have to stick to rules over which it would have little say, and, crucially for a large number of Labour MPs, it would mean accepting the free movement of people between the UK and EU. Given that 161 of 232 Labour MPs represent constituencies that voted to Leave, it is likely that most of them, like Ed Miliband and Caroline Flint, are opposed to free movement.

So, if Labour won’t try to keep us in the EU, or even in the single market, what can it do? Last month Corbyn gave a speech on Europe that put his seal of approval on a long tactical manoeuvre by Starmer to commit Labour to a policy of staying in a customs union with the EU.

Starmer, with his lawyerly skill, had already managed to get ahead of the government in arguing for a standstill transition period, in which Britain would be treated as an EU member for 21 months after formally leaving. This was what was finally agreed at the EU summit last week.

Now he is just ahead of the game again. There is a majority in the House of Commons for staying in a customs union with the EU: probably more than half of the Conservatives plus nearly all of the opposition parties. A customs union would not solve the Irish border problem, although it would make it easier, and it would simplify trade with the EU generally. It would not require free movement of people, and its main disadvantage is that it would restrict the UK’s ability to make trade deals with other countries, which is something only hardcore Brexiteers tend to worry about.

We cannot be sure that the EU27 would be prepared to negotiate a customs union, although Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform thinks its leaders are sympathetic to the idea.

Theresa May has ruled out a customs union so far, but if Corbyn and Starmer fight the parliamentary battle with skill, they may be able to force her into a Brexit deal that leaves Britain with a closer economic relationship with the EU than Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Jacob Rees-Mogg would like.

If they succeed, Corbyn might deserve the accolade of “the real prime minister”.