Tonight’s Brexit vote makes it clear – the PM must end the parliamentary dance and put it to the people

Following this evening’s votes, and months of protracted debate and “crunch moments”, we now know what parliament doesn’t like – Theresa May’s “deal”, no deal and Jeremy Corbyn’s supposed, illusory Labour alternative. None of these options has a majority. But we have yet to discover what parliament collectively wants.

We have now to assume that the Commons will vote to extend Article 50 (it would clearly be absurd not to in the present circumstances). On the assumption that the EU agrees, there will be an unprecedented effort by parliament to take on the executive’s role in deciding how to run business in the Commons – even if only temporarily and on one issue.

The government could react by trying to change the parliamentary arithmetic through an election but that would be a hazardous, unpredictable exercise and deeply unpopular. It should be regarded as unlikely.

How then can the deadlock be broken? There are some MPs who think they can cobble together some kind of compromise – let us call it “Releave” or “Lemain”: a bit of Norway; a bit of Turkey. Essentially, membership of the European Economic Area, like Norway, but not of the EU. Even if the EU were to agree to something of this kind, it is difficult to see the public accepting a solution where the UK follows EU rules without any say on them.

There is a fundamental choice at this point. Leave on the terms the government has reached with the EU, or see sense and remain in the EU. And the way for the country to make that choice is for the public to be consulted afresh.

The Final Say second referendum has not recently been put to the Commons, on the assumption it would fall short of a majority. While Labour is now formally – and belatedly – supportive of a people’s vote, it looks very much as if a chunk of their MPs would peel away from the proposition, negating the efforts of the (for now) limited number of Tory rebels. Their numbers need to increase.

I have never thought, in any event, that a referendum could be imposed on government by parliamentary arithmetic alone. The Liberal Democrats have argued for a long time that at some point the government would itself realise that the only chance of resuscitating the friendless “deal” is to put it to the people in a confirmatory referendum. The prime minister would have, perhaps, a 50:50 chance at getting her preferred solution through – a far better chance than is offered by further votes in the Commons.

The most straightforward way to go about this is to cease the parliamentary dance around a “meaningful vote”, and for the government to introduce fresh legislation. With a fair wind, we estimate it could be taken through both Houses quickly, permitting a referendum before the summer.

Alternatively, as a first step, the government could get behind the “Kyle-Wilson amendment”, which invites approval of the deal subject to a referendum with the option to Remain. Liberal Democrats are clear: we do not support May’s deal, and we would campaign vigorously to Remain.

Timing is critical. While serious progress has been made for the Remain cause this week, the prime minister continues to bank on her Brexiteer backbenchers eventually falling into line rather than risk losing Brexit altogether. It is therefore crucial that in the coming days Conservative Remainer MPs realise that they cannot rely on Brexiteers to scupper Brexit.

Those moderate Conservatives who support the deal, or who prefer to remain in the EU (many are in both positions at once), must now begin to open their minds to a people’s vote as the way forward.

If they do, the prime minister may realise that Margaret Thatcher’s old friend Tina (there is no alternative) has come to visit. With no alternative, Theresa May could yet find herself with a rejuvenated voice at the despatch box, arguing for the very referendum she has railed against.

Sir Vince Cable is leader of the Liberal Democrats and backs a people’s vote