We have moved a step closer towards Brexit – but at this rate we may never leave

MPs took Britain a step closer to the EU exit door today, but still refused to decide whether we will actually leave in the end or not.

Theresa May persuaded more than half the 75 Conservative rebels she needed – 41 of them voted with her this time. But she persuaded only two more Labour MPs to switch to her side – Rosie Cooper and Jim Fitzpatrick – leaving her 30 votes short of winning.

That leaves the country not knowing whether it is going to leave the EU soon or whether it now faces a long delay, which could mean we end up staying after all.

We are now back where we were two weeks ago, facing a deadline and forced to go cap in hand to Brussels to ask for another extension to the timetable. Only this time, if the other EU leaders agree to an extension it will be a long one, and that means, as the prime minister repeated after the vote today, we would have to hold European parliament elections.

So what will probably happen next is that Theresa May will try at least one more time to get her deal through. In the end the arithmetic is unchanged, but the vote is still just about winnable if she can get the 10 DUP MPs to support her. Then she would need to persuade 20 more Labour MPs, which might have been straightforward at one stage but looks increasingly out of reach now.

My view is that the moment of maximum pressure will be after the EU grants an extension – presumably at the emergency summit announced today on 10 April – and MPs have to vote to change the Brexit date in British law. That vote would have to take place on 11 or 12 April, just before the brink. But the significance of it would be that MPs would be voting explicitly to hold European parliament elections.

At that point a last chance to vote for the deal might suddenly seem the way out for MPs desperate not to be seen to be voting to stay in the EU.

There are several questions about this scenario, of course. Would the EU grant us another extension? I think so. It tried to sound a bit scary about forcing a no-deal Brexit last time, but then it reluctantly agreed to give us more time. Whatever Emmanuel Macron says, the bloc does not want to be blamed for forcing us out without a deal. That would be seen as betraying Ireland, the EU member that would suffer most from the disruption and that the EU has sworn to defend.

Maybe the EU would finally give up this time – it would take only one of its leaders to veto an extension to block it. But then I think the House of Commons would insist that the government revokes Article 50 and cancels Brexit altogether.

The other question is whether the second day of indicative votes on Monday could produce an alternative Brexit plan that is more likely to command a majority of the Commons than the prime minister’s deal. I do not see how that can be engineered. What was striking about today’s debate was the bitter division on the Remainer side of the house between the Soft Brexiteers and the No Brexiteers.

Most Labour MPs are Soft Brexiteers, but a minority are No Brexiteers, a faction on the opposition benches led by the Scottish National Party, who want to cancel Brexit, either through a referendum or by going straight to revoking Article 50.

If those two factions could unite behind a soft Brexit – Labour’s policy of a permanent customs union, for example – it would have a majority in parliament. But they won’t because the No Brexiteers don’t want to leave the EU under any circumstances.

And they may yet get their way.