As his Brexit talks with Theresa May finally collapse, Jeremy Corbyn has the most to lose

Labour isn’t working. The famous Tory poster, which helped Margaret Thatcher win power 40 years ago this month, could be applied equally to Labour’s campaign for next Thursday’s European parliament elections.

The party is losing support to two rivals that Jeremy Corbyn thought he had seen off – the Liberal Democrats and Greens. Their crystal clear anti-Brexit pitch contrasts with Corbyn’s fuzzy approach, which is alienating Remainers without keeping Labour Leavers on board.

Figures I have seen show how Labour’s campaign is not reaching its natural supporters on social media, a far cry from its huge success in this area when Corbyn deprived the Conservatives of their overall majority at the 2017 general election. The statistics reveal that Labour is currently engaging less with its own Facebook audience than any other party. Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is way out in front with 18 per cent; Change UK and Ukip are at around 4 per cent; Labour is on zero, trailing the Lib Dems, Greens and Tories.

Labour sources insist there are other ways of reaching supporters on social media, through grassroots groups such as Momentum. They say Labour is spending more on this European election than any previous one.

But the opinion polls on how people will vote next Thursday also paint a bleak picture for Labour. Today, YouGov shows the party in third place at 15 per cent, behind the Lib Dems (16 per cent), with Farage’s party on 35 per cent.

Labour has lost 21 per cent of its 2017 support to the Lib Dems, 16 per cent to the Greens, and 6 per cent to Change UK. But it has also lost 14 per cent to the Brexit Party.

Corbyn is falling between the Remain and Leave stools while trying to straddle both. He may have overestimated the importance of the Labour Leave vote, even though it still exists in key marginals in the north and Midlands. According to YouGov, the 2-1 Remain-Leave majority among Labour supporters in 2016 now stands at 3-1.

Labour MPs and European election candidates say Corbyn’s stance is playing badly on the doorsteps. In Scotland, several have defied him by coming out clearly for Remain and a Final Say referendum. In another threat to Labour, the first minister Nicola Sturgeon today urged Remainers to lend the SNP their vote even if they do not support Scottish independence. Corbyn’s shilly-shallying opened the door to her strategy.

Under pressure at a parliamentary Labour Party meeting this week, Corbyn conceded a “stronger message” was needed, saying: “I get that.” But his internal critics are still waiting for one.

Remainers, including many Labour members, were perplexed by Corbyn’s decision to enter talks with May on a Brexit compromise. So it is no surprise the Labour leader has brought them to a close today after six weeks, telling May in a letter that they have “gone as far as they can” and blaming the government’s “increasing weakness and instability”.

With May set to announce her departure in the next few weeks, Corbyn rightly pointed out there was no guarantee that any deal on a customs union would be honoured by her successor.

Agreement was never on the cards. Neither leader could bring their party with them; in any case, Corbyn was never going to throw a desperate May a lifeline. The two parties will continue to talk about May’s Plan B, an agreement on a series of Commons votes. But Corbyn will again disappoint her by refusing to sign up in advance to the outcome of such a process. A leaked document from the talks suggests the two sides discussed a vote to rule out a Final Say referendum; the negative wording reminds us that both May and Corbyn oppose a public vote. However, Corbyn told journalists: “We would not rule out a second referendum.”

Ending the negotiations might not do much to boost Labour’s prospects on Thursday. Although Ukip won the last European elections, with the governing party in such disarray, the opposition should not be content with second place behind Farage. Corbyn’s eyes are on the prize of the general election May’s successor might call. But his pitch that only Labour can unite the country is not working now and might not work then.

The revival of the Lib Dems and Greens is dangerous for Labour; there’s no guarantee its lost voters will return. People are unlikely to see a general election as a straight choice between Labour and the Tories, as they did in 2017. Polls of how people would vote in a future Westminster ballot are also worrying for Labour: Ipsos Mori puts Labour on 27 per cent and the Tories on 25 per cent, their lowest combined share of the vote in 40 years of polling by the company.

Their combined 82 per cent in 2017 now looks like an aberration; the two entrants in this ugly baby competition are so uninspiring that we are probably heading for a period of multi-party politics.