I advised the Electoral Commission on Brexit – this is why Theresa May needs a new referendum to pass her deal

Britain is in a political crisis like no other in our lifetime. Normally, any prime minister losing a vote on a flagship policy of her party’s manifesto would resign immediately. Yet Theresa May limps on, winning a no-confidence vote thanks to the goodwill of DUP MPs.

The main question now is what next? Some who saw parliament’s rejection of May’s Brexit deal believe it is time for a second referendum that might pull the plug on Brexit altogether. MPs finding May’s deal too soft want the UK to prepare itself for a no-deal exit with virtually no time left to do so. Neither side has a majority in parliament and so the country – as well as May’s premiership – is in limbo.

Our political paralysis looks daunting for good reason. The EU has made clear that unless our red lines change there will be no shift in its position. May refuses to budge, claiming that backing her plan is in the national interest. The strength of May’s hand is that only her deal is known to be acceptable to the EU. Any change on what we want in the agreement will need to be approved by the EU to avoid no-deal Brexit. Changing our red lines makes possible a different deal, but there’s little time to renegotiate unless Brexit is postponed beyond March.

May’s irresponsible claim that “no deal is better than a bad deal” is all the more reckless when considering how little and too late the government’s planning for no-deal Brexit has been. Its approval of a ferry company without ferries is one of many examples cited by critics that shows the UK is simply unable to go down that route without significant negative consequences.

Reports that her government is considering rewriting the Good Friday Agreement is another example. Not only would it risk ending the peace process, but would do so in bad faith as May would effectively overturn the result of one referendum to push forward on another – and put the UK in breach of international law as the Northern Ireland deal is a treaty with Ireland.

The prime minister has run out of ideas. She unveiled a plan B virtually identical to plan A in all but name which was widely mocked from across the House of Commons. May has a talent at getting MPs to unite on Brexit if only in opposition to her next move.

But there is a way forward. However it would involve doing the one thing that the prime minister has been at pains to prevent: finding a majority in parliament for a second referendum on her deal versus remaining in the EU. Of course, there are many campaigners for Remain that want a chance to cancel Brexit. This is reported to number 150-160 Labour MPs and about 20-30 Tories. Far short of winning approval.

But the key point about a second referendum cannot be a second chance for Remain, but that it is necessary for moving all sides forward should parliament be unable to find a compromise – as now looks likely. A second referendum should be embraced not only by Leavers, but also the prime minister as the best hope for her own deal.

MPs lack any appetite for accepting May’s Brexit plans. The best way to change minds, if not hearts, is not simply to delay decisions until there is no choice but to accept a deal few want. May can get her way with rebel MPs if, and only if, she has the clear weight of public support on her side. If voters supported her plan in a second referendum, then this is the lifeline she needs that could have the necessary weight to bring MPs on her side – just as the first referendum brought a clear majority in favour of triggering Article 50.

As someone who advised the Electoral Commission on the last referendum, the question put to the public should be a straight choice between May’s deal or Remain. Including “no deal” would split the Brexit vote and unfairly benefit Remain – and so undermine the legitimacy of the referendum. On these terms, it would have the support of the 170+ MPs already calling for a “people’s vote”, but should also have support of the 202 MPs backing May’s deal – and secure a majority in parliament.

Without any other way out of this political crisis available, a new public vote – if done properly as set out above – could draw a line under Brexit, move the country forward out of the current quagmire and even give the prime minister a lifeline. If she sees only dark clouds in a second vote, then this is their silver lining. Those who support her deal or remaining in the EU should together urgently back a people’s vote even if for different purposes.