Brexiteers may have had their moment – it's now the Remainers who have a spring in their step

“We are all Brexiteers now.” The phrase was uttered by many politicians who had opposed leaving the EU but had no appetite to oppose the public’s decision in the referendum held a year ago.

Many of the 48 per cent were unreconciled, feeling cheated by the Brexiteers’ false promises, notably the pledge to pump £350m a week into the NHS when our membership fee to the EU club ended. Leave campaign leaders admit they would not have won without it.

A majority of Conservative MPs had backed Remain but most agreed with their new leader Theresa May when she repeatedly declared: “Brexit means Brexit.” Only 10 Labour MPs supported leaving the EU. Under a different leader, the Opposition might have put up more of a fight. But Jeremy Corbyn, a long-standing Eurosceptic and reluctant Remainer, had no intention of dying in the ditch for a capitalist club and could not afford to alienate the white working class voters who had backed Leave. Only the Liberal Democrats, for whom the 48 per cent was a rather bigger group than the 8 per cent they won at the 2015 election, tried to keep EU membership alive by offering a referendum on the exit deal.

​Hardline Brexiteers were not as jubilant as you would expect. Surprised by their historic triumph, many still feared that defeat would somehow by snatched away from them. They were reassured when Ms May finally declared her hand in January in a speech at Lancaster House: Britain would leave the single market and the customs union. A band of 30 pro-European Tory MPs talked a good game and threatened to rebel but rarely delivered. They were outgunned by a highly-organised European Reform Group of 60 backbenchers who rallied behind Ms May’s hard Brexit.

Only one Tory MP, Kenneth Clarke, voted against triggering Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty to formally open exit talks. It was passed by 498 votes to 114 in February. When Mr Corbyn then declared that the “real fight starts now” over the detail, he was ridiculed. Finally, the Europhobes could celebrate “game, set and match”. For pro-Europeans, there was brave talk about public opinion changing, but no sign of it as Project Fear’s prophecies of economic doom failed to materialise.

The only ones warning that Ms May could “backslide on Brexit” were Ukip, as it whistled to keep its spirits up. The rebels no longer had a cause; it had been achieved.

Very few people believed the Brexit see-saw could tip again. But, remarkably, it did. Looking ahead to difficult EU negotiations, Ms May called a snap election for 8 June. Her aims were to crush an apparently weak Labour Party and win such a strong public mandate for her Brexit strategy that Parliament would not dare to challenge.

What looked like a masterstroke turned out to be a catastrophic mistake. Against all the odds, Ms May lost her working majority of 17. She also lost control over the Brexit process. Instead of Parliament being sidelined, it was suddenly and unexpectedly empowered. In justifying her disastrous election, the Prime Minister had overstated the chances of her Brexit plan being sabotaged by MPs and peers. After the election, pro-Europeans saw an opportunity to dilute it, and a minority could even dream again of stopping it.

After a year of living dangerously, it is the pro-Europeans who now have a spring in their step. “We are not dancing in the streets, but we are back in the game,” one leading figure said. Re-energised Europhile Tories discuss alliances with MPs in other parties. Previously cowed pro-Europeans in the Cabinet flex their muscles, ready to exploit their new clout now that Ms May’s authority has been shot to pieces. The voice of business, unheard in the election, calls for the economy, not control of migration, to be put first.

In this world of topsy-turvy politics, hardline Brexiteers are not in despair yet, but some are nervous. The more paranoid amongst them can again see their worst nightmare coming true. They are relieved that Ms May remains committed to leaving the single market and customs union. But they worry that Parliament could now throw a spanner in all their works.

The Europhobes want a clean break with the EU in 2019. They fear that pro-Europeans, led by the Chancellor Philip Hammond, will win a longer transitional deal. In their nightmare, a temporary extension of the customs union, or something close to it, becomes permanent. In their eyes, the UK would then still be half-in the EU, bound by EU regulations and possibly by the European Court of Justice.

Although Brexiteers argue that more than 80 per cent of the electorate voted for two main parties who back Brexit, pro-Europeans counter that there is no majority in the country or Parliament for hard Brexit. In practice, this means that MPs would be unlikely to allow Ms May or her successor to walk out of the EU talks with no deal, and would send the Prime Minister back to Brussels to get a better one.

Even if Ms May had enhanced her majority, it would have been hard enough to get the eight complex Brexit Bills in the Queen’s Speech on to the statute book. Without a majority, ministers will daily have to tiptoe through a minefield. The House of Lords, which under parliamentary conventions would not have scuppered Ms May’s Brexit blueprint if she had won her mandate, now feels less constrained. Labour and the Lib Dems can usually defeat the Tories in the second chamber by joining forces. Another potential stumbling block for ministers is that the Scottish Parliament may need to approve some of the Brexit laws.

On the anniversary of the momentous decision to leave the EU, Parliament, rather than the Government, is in the driving seat. It has an unexpected opportunity to shape what Brexit really does mean.

The other big factor in that will be public opinion. Polls during the election campaign suggested that 68 per cent of people want to “get on” with Brexit. But as the downsides of hard Brexit and no EU deal become clearer in the new political climate, a change in the public mood would encourage MPs and peers to insist on a softer, more sensible Brexit. But, without a dramatic change in public opinion, they are unlikely to try to overturn the referendum or call another one.