Boris Johnson has made Labour wary of a general election, and fearful of a no-confidence motion ‘trap’

With hindsight, we should have seen the suspension of parliament coming. Quizzed during the Tory leadership election, Boris Johnson mumbled that he was “not attracted to archaic devices” – the politician’s old friend, a non-denial denial.

Liz Truss, the first cabinet minister to support Boris, asked by BBC’s Newsnight whether he was definitely ruling out proroguing parliament, replied: “That’s right.” But Team Boris did not back her up; it kept the option open. Another clue: Dominic Raab, the leadership candidate who floated the idea, was made foreign secretary and de facto deputy prime minister.

Boris aides were being disingenuous to say the least when they told the BBC after an Observer story last Sunday: “The claim that the government is considering proroguing parliament in September in order to stop MPs debating Brexit is entirely false.”

Labour did see it coming. It suspected Boris would opt for a five-week Commons break until 14 October, to squeeze the time available to stop a no-deal exit. He duly did.

While Johnson’s gambit outwitted his opponents, it also galvanised them. Some Tories who did not intend to revolt until October to give him a chance to land a revised Brexit deal, will now join the revolt next week.

The first priority when MPs return on Tuesday will be to seize control of the Commons agenda and use the time to rush through a law. It is still being finalised in cross-party talks. I understand the latest draft says the UK can leave the EU only after the move is approved by parliament, and that if it is not, the PM must seek an extension to the UK’s membership beyond 31 October.

The aim is to maximise the rebellion so MPs (Labour as well as Tory) who want a deal can join forces with those who want a Final Say referendum or general election.

Holding this rickety coalition together will not be easy, but will be vital. So far, Johnson’s opponents have looked divided among themselves and incoherent. His ruthless move should provide the 10,000-volt shock they need to put personal and party rivalries behind them. But there’s no guarantee that will happen and Boris is gambling that it won’t. That’s another incentive for the rebels to get their act together: to prove him wrong.

This will mean Labour and the Liberal Democrats resisting the temptation to take potshots at each other, and instead concentrating their fire on the real enemy. This will not come naturally. Labour has lost a big chunk of its 2017 Remain vote to the resurgent Lib Dems, who cannot stomach the thought of Jeremy Corbyn being caretaker prime minister for five minutes, let alone five weeks.

There are some tentative grounds for hope. Last Tuesday’s talks between opposition parties, called by Corbyn, were positive and constructive. Kenneth Clarke, the longest-serving MP, said he would probably install Corbyn as temporary PM if that was the only way to prevent no deal.

Other Tories might need to follow suit. If they don’t, Corbyn might need to swallow his pride and support Clarke or someone else as leader of a caretaker administration. It might well prove impossible to reach an agreement. Another reason why MPs should put all their energies into passing a watertight law to stop no deal.

Some MPs argue that a vote of no confidence in the government should be brought forward from October to September now that Johnson has squeezed the parliamentary timetable. They are wrong. An early no-confidence vote could play into the prime minister’s hands. It might well be lost; many of the Tories prepared to rebel on legislation would baulk at bringing down their own government. They would be more likely to do so as the cliff edge loomed in October.

Even if such a vote succeeded, Boris would refuse to resign. Unless an alternative PM could win a positive vote of confidence within 14 days, an election would be held and Boris would name the date – in November, so the UK left during the campaign.

I’m told Conservative campaign HQ is preparing for an election – but one imposed by parliament, not one sought by Johnson. So pursuing a no-confidence vote might enable that. “It’s a trap; we would be mad to walk into it,” one senior Labour figure said. “Boris would portray us as on the wrong side in a ‘people versus parliament’ election.”

It will not be easy for Corbyn to temper his desire for an election. But he might need to. It might be in his own interests. Labour MPs fear that Johnson would do much better than Theresa May in 2017, not least among Labour Leave voters in the north and Midlands. She tried to appeal to them but failed. But as one Labour MP put it: “The mood is very different now. Boris is much more of a threat.”