The Brexit Party will win in Peterborough as the Farage effect sharply increases the chances of no deal

After the seismic events of recent weeks, it might seem strange to predict that another political earthquake is approaching, but one certainly is. Its epicentre and timing are also at this point known; Peterborough Town Hall after the votes in next Thursday’s by-election are in.

Within a week the Brexit Party, which did not exist a couple of months ago, will have sent its first member of parliament to Westminster, as well as topping the poll in the European elections and seen its leader, the irrepressible Nigel Farage once again feted by the president of the United States, as if it was old Nige rather than HM the Queen or Theresa May who was playing host to The Donald. No wonder Farage can’t seem to wipe that grin off his face.

If you try, you can already feel the rumblings. Last week the Labour Party was appealing to members to come and help with their campaign in unusually urgent terms. It is, after all a Labour seat, though one lost through the wrongdoings of its MP, Fiona Onasanya, caught for speeding and eventually convicted of perverting the course of justice.

In an email to members in the region, the party pleaded: ”In Peterborough, we’re in the fight of our lives. The Brexit Party are doing well. Really well. And if we don’t do something in the next week, the Brexit Party could get their first MP.

We need to campaign in Peterborough. By train, by car, by hook or by crook, your help is needed. We have seven days left and need hundreds of volunteers to win. The Brexit Party gained the most MEPs last week and took the largest share of the votes. We are at real risk of the Thatcherite hard right winger Nigel Farage getting representation in parliament.”

They’re right. Instead of opinion polls, we can look at real votes in real ballot boxes, where the Brexit Party beat Labour by more than two votes to one. Judge for yourself. The result of the European elections in Peterborough from the main parties was as follows:

Brexit Party 38.1%

Labour 17.1%

Liberal Democrats 15.3%

Conservatives 10.8%

Greens 10.7%

Ukip 3.6%

Change UK 3%

English Democrats 0.7%

Even allowing for some swing away from the Brexit Party to the others, they still appear to have an excellent chance of taking the seat, and sending their man, Mike Greene to Westminster, and with a pretty convincing mandate. A Con-Lab marginal has suddenly been converted into the bridgehead for a Brexit invasion.

The bookies certainly put Greene and the Brexit Party as favourites, at about 2/9 on, with Labour at 4/1 and the Tories way out at 25/1.

What will it mean? First, it will give Farage and his gang yet another opportunity for some free publicity, reinforcing their message about “changing politics for good”, and proving that they can – possibly – become a force in the House of Commons with well-chosen candidates, such as Greene, a local boy made good and formerly a lifelong Conservative voter.

Expect more of this sort of propaganda, from Farage: “What we have is a particular appeal with this type of candidate, someone who has not been part of the two major parties, someone who has clearly never coveted a career in politics. Someone who is doing it because he believes in it. That is the kind of new politics the Brexit Party will bring to all elections in this country.”

But it will be the impact of the Tory leadership and Brexit itself that will really count in the coming months. It will panic an already nervous party into backing a Tory leadership candidate who is the most blasé about a no-deal Brexit and, thus, make a no-deal Brexit even more likely, with all that will mean for the economy and jobs, as the CBI warn today.

Indeed it might not be so surprising to learn of Conservative Party members who voted for the Brexit Party in Peterborough because it is they, and not the Tories under Theresa May, that truly represents their view of the world. Farage talks about a realignment of British politics, and there is loose talk in Tory circles about some kind of accommodation with the Brexit Party.

History proves that by-elections can matter and can, especially, help insurgent parties such as the Liberals, the SDP, the SNP and indeed Ukip gain momentum and credibility. Peterborough seems set to do the same for the Farageists, in a rush to build on their recent successes. If only Fiona Onasanya, also in quite a hurry, hadn’t been driving her Nissan Micra at 41mph in a 30mph zone.