A no-deal Brexit could destroy London’s thriving economy – Theresa May should rule it out now

Businesses across our city have been clear: a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster. From the retailers and construction companies who have been forced to re-plan and re-jig their supply chains, to the professional services firms reviewing thousands of contracts, they agree that no amount of last-minute contingency planning will be able to prevent the damage caused by crashing out of the EU at the end of March.

That’s why we – London business and London government – are joining together to call on all MPs from across all parties and constituencies to protect jobs, prosperity and living standards first and to take a no-deal Brexit off the table.

This means that if Theresa May fails to win today’s vote in parliament, she must immediately withdraw Article 50 to avoid a catastrophic no-deal Brexit. This would stop the clock, giving us time to decide the next steps.

If the government and parliament are incapable of finding a way out of the mess, we believe this crucial issue should be taken out of the hands of politicians and returned to the British people to have the final say. Businesses might not welcome the continued uncertainty, but it will be vastly less damaging than crashing out of the EU.

Oxford Economics has warned that economic growth will fall to zero in the event of a no-deal Brexit. They also forecast a 10 per cent fall in the value of sterling. The international macro research consultancy, Fathom, envisages a 0.8 per cent contraction, while Credit Suisse predicts a fall of 1 or 2 per cent in the economy.

Such changes might sound small, but one percentage point means £20bn. And, over the course of a few years, the cumulative impact on our standard of living would be substantial.

Independent analysis by Cambridge Econometrics, commissioned by City Hall and published last year, predicts that a no-deal Brexit could result in as many as 87,000 fewer jobs in London, with the capital’s economic output 2 per cent lower in 2030 than would otherwise be the case. The report warned that London’s professional and financial services would be the worst hit by no deal, with 29,000 fewer jobs by 2030 than if we remained in both the single market and customs union. All of this means that if Britain falls off the cliff edge at the end of March, we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment.

It is a cliche to call on politicians to set short-term ambitions aside and to act in the national interest, but the truth is that this has never been more required. We need calm, clear thinking over the next few days and weeks because a no-deal Brexit would simply wreak too much damage on our economy, businesses and future prosperity.

Mayor Sadiq Khan was writing with Jasmine Whitbread who is the chief executive of business campaigning group London First