A no-deal Brexit would destroy UK science – and this is how

Let us not pull punches here. UK science got hit the day after the Brexit vote and damage has continued, under the radar, for well over two years since that date. However, the new threat of a no-deal Brexit has added a more dramatic set of complicated factors that are ramping up some serious damage to UK science right now, whatever happens.

One week after the referendum result, we at Scientists for EU sent out a call for researchers to record their experiences of the immediate impact from the vote. Our reading and classification of more than 400 entries from those first few weeks after the vote, many confidential, suggested to us that overnight, the UK had become less attractive as a place to do science.

The first reason is cultural and the second is funding-related. The surge in xenophobia nationally instantly made many foreigners in the UK science base feel less welcome and uncertain about their future rights.

The uncertainty of the UK relationship with the EU science programme was also a strong factor in the UK’s decreased attractiveness to prospective talent. There were many cases of non-Brits turning down jobs or not applying.

Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement seemed to fix the access to science funds problem, if not yet the rights of EU citizens to stay. The deal proposed to continue paying into EU programmes, including the science programme, until 2020, thereby securing full access until the end of that year.

However, no sooner had it been signed than David Davis began making noises that the withdrawal agreement and associated “divorce bill” may be reneged. This threat of a no deal was exacerbated when Davis left after the Chequers debacle and Dominic Raab took his place, echoing the threat as soon as he came in.

On 23 August, the government released its first batch of technical notes on what no-deal Brexit would mean for UK science.

This stated explicitly that, as a third country, UK institutions would no longer be eligible for three Horizon 2020 funding lines: European Research Council (ERC) grants, Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions, and SME instrument grants for small innovative businesses.

We immediately calculated that these three lines represent 45 per cent of the UK’s receipts to date from Horizon 2020. Given that the UK is currently winning €1.3bn each year from Horizon 2020, then a no-deal Brexit would cost UK research over £520m a year in lost opportunity to access these very high-value grants.

Could we not just replace these grants with UK money and equivalents? We could try – but it would take years to build up to the prestige and reach of the ERC grants in particular. The European Research Council grants are awarded by a scientific committee of Europe’s top scientists.

Recipients have won six Nobel prizes, four Fields medals and five Wolf prizes. One in 14 publications from ERC projects rank in the top 1 per cent most cited worldwide. The generous awards for blue-skies research are typically €1m-€2m for talent from anywhere in the world to undertake pioneering research in EU and associated countries, with enough money to build a top team.

Even if the UK government was to compensate our research community for the financial loss of ERC grants, it would take far longer than the few months left until Brexit day to create a brand that top global scientists wanted. When the Swiss were cut out of Horizon 2020, they tried to create national stop-gap versions of the ERC – without much success.

In addition to the concerns around access to talent and access to the science programme, there are other huge issues now emerging fast. A no-deal Brexit would bring disruption in supplies. Labs are already stockpiling. A further fall in the pound would push equipment costs up. That blows budgets. We have already lost the European Medicines Agency, but now the no-deal uncertainty means large research and development companies are looking to leave too.

And finally, a no-deal Brexit would undoubtedly cause a hostile climate between the UK and EU, which would strongly serve to repel European and global scientists from our shores.

Given that the future of the UK’s economy should lie in jobs from science, innovation and technology, Brexit is clearly undermining the very fabric of our future wealth, before we even start the thing.

Dr Mike Galsworthy is programme director of Scientists for EU

For updates on what’s going on with Brexit, you can register here to receive our new Brexit in Brief newsletter and other benefits. If you already have a registered account with The Independent you can sign up for the newsletter via your ‘Account details’ tab.