Jeremy Corbyn tonight passed up the opportunity for an early election – but just give him a few days

The most significant words tonight were uttered by Jeremy Corbyn, who was late to take his place in the chamber after MPs passed the bill to block a no-deal Brexit surprisingly quickly.

The Labour leader repeated what he had said the night before: “Let this bill pass and gain royal assent, then we will back an election so we do not crash out with a no-deal exit from the EU.”

That contradicted the line taken by Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, and Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, earlier today. Starmer said the election should be after the “passing and implementation of this act” – and by “implementation” he appeared to mean securing the Brexit extension beyond 31 October.

While Thornberry said: “I’ll wait a couple of weeks. If we can give them a little bit of extra rope – just let them be in power for a few more weeks, then people can really see how bad they are.”

But waiting a few more weeks would miss the chance of an election before 31 October. It would mean – if the House of Lords passes the anti-no-deal bill into law – that the UK government would have to agree a Brexit extension before an election.

The last date on which a 15 October election can be called is Monday, so Labour has to decide by then if it wants this election or not. Tonight Corbyn and all Labour MPs abstained, which meant the election motion failed. But the Labour leader signalled that he wants to vote for it on Monday, if Hilary Benn’s bill has obtained royal assent and become law by then.

Deep textual analysis would suggest that Corbyn said he would back an election but didn’t say on what date it should be. But it would be difficult, if the Benn bill does become law and Boris Johnson asks the Commons again to vote for an election on 15 October, for Corbyn to say that he didn’t mean that election.

If the Benn bill is on the statute book, the Labour argument that they cannot trust the prime minister not to change the date of the election falls away. If Johnson delayed the election, he – or whoever was prime minister then – would be forced by the law to obtain a Brexit extension.

Equally, however, it will be difficult for Corbyn to persuade his MPs to back him. Many of them are adamant that they will not vote for an election date that is before 31 October. They can’t say so, but some of them must fear that Johnson will win the election and drag the country out of the EU without a deal.

And if Corbyn cannot persuade 100 of his 247 MPs, then the early election motion will again fall short of the two-thirds majority needed.

That means Monday will be the next flashpoint in the three-year rolling crisis that is Brexit. If the Benn bill passes the House of Lords, possibly sitting all weekend, Corbyn and his Labour MPs will have to decide what happens next.

Tonight, Corbyn seemed set on voting for an election on 15 October. He does not want to appear to be ducking the challenge, and he wants to avoid being portrayed as leader of the “block Brexit” party. But he is – not for the first time – up against a large majority of Labour MPs who want to deny Johnson the chance of victory and trap him into asking for a Brexit extension.

The drama is not over yet.