Boris Johnson only has himself to blame over Europe seeing us as the ‘sick man of Europe’

As if Boris Johnson did not have enough problems after the Sunday papers said he had “cancelled Christmas”, today he woke up to headlines portraying Britain as the “sick man of Europe” after EU countries shut the door on the UK over the new strain of coronavirus.

The perfect storm of Covid-19 restrictions, and delays at ports caused by pre-Christmas stockpiling and end of the transitional period on 31 December – possibly without an EU trade deal – was already strong enough. It reached force 12 with France’s decision to close its borders with the UK.  

British ministers expected EU countries to impose travel bans on people but were caught cold by France’s 48-hour ban on the freight lorries which bring food supplies to the UK.  

The silver lining on this black cloud, according to Whitehall officials, is that preparations to cope with a no-deal Brexit in Kent can now be introduced. Supermarkets insist there is no need for panic buying, though the scenes in the early weeks of the pandemic are a reminder that some consumers assume the opposite when such assurances are given.

In a late afternoon press conference, the prime minister tried to put a positive spin on things, saying that he had spoken with France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, and that they were working to unblock the border "as fast as possible". Johnson added that the two leaders hoped to ease the flow of trade in the "new few hours". It would be in both their interests to do so. 

Johnson also said that he understood concerns in Europe, but that “the risk of transmission of a solitary driver, sitting alone in the cab” is “really very low”. It will be interesting to see if the prime minister’s positive mental attitude has an effect in real terms. 

Ministers have a point when they claim Johnson cannot be blamed for problems at the ports due to a health emergency that will soon afflict other European nations as the new strain is detected there. But the danger for Johnson is that it merges in the public’s mind with the on/off relaxation of the Christmas rules into a picture of chaos, with responsibility laid at the door of No 10.

Of course, opposition parties will be happy to reinforce such an impression, making it more likely that Johnson’s belated scrapping of the five-day Christmas respite will continue to haunt him. It doesn’t help him that some Tory lockdown sceptics claim he could have acted earlier over the new strain, but used it as cover for his Christmas rules retreat once parliament began its festive break last Thursday. 

A growing number of grumpy Tory backbenchers are demanding that the Commons be recalled to discuss the crisis and formally approve the new tier 4 curbs. But they have already taken effect in London and parts of the southeast, and would win a majority even in the face of a huge Tory rebellion because the Labour opposition supports them. 

I can’t see much point in retrospectively approving tier 4 in December rather than when the Commons returns on 4 January.

However, there would be a real reason to recall MPs and peers if an EU trade deal were struck in the interminable negotiations in Brussels. They are still stuck on fisheries but the fact that the two sides are still talking suggests agreement is possible, though it might take until after Christmas, provoking a mad rush for both sides to ratify it before 31 December.

It would make sense for the UK and EU to agree a short extension to the transitional period because of the severe threat posed by the new strain, as Nicola Sturgeon is arguing. Ministers are ruling that out today, claiming it would create even more uncertainty for business. 

The real reason is that Johnson has repeatedly promised he would not extend it. The European Research Group of hardline Brexiteers would hate it, and he is desperate to keep them onside.  Some will privately hope the new strain would make it easier to bury the chaos of no deal under the chaos of coronavirus. Back in the real world, business would surely welcome a move to stop the clock and limit the damage.

To spare his blushes, Johnson could call it a “standstill arrangement” rather than an extension. He might yet do it just before 31 December, but only at the last minute and if he really has to. For now, as usual, the prime minister’s indecision is final.