Strap yourselves in – we're heading for Brexit round three

Theresa May is barely in control, but she is going to try one more time to get her Brexit deal through parliament next week.

The prime minister has been forced to accept that she cannot get Britain out of the EU on 29 March, so now she is trying to use the threat of a long delay to put pressure on MPs to finally agree to her deal. The deal that they have already rejected twice.

Her plan is to try to persuade Tory rebels and Labour MPs who say that the 2016 referendum must be respected that this is their last chance to deliver Brexit. This time, she insists, really is the last chance. If she doesn’t get the deal through next week, she will warn, Brexit will be delayed for a long time and we may end up never leaving the EU.

That is, of course, exactly what roughly half the country wants – but she is banking on MPs who promised to abide by the result of the referendum finally coming into line.

There were signs in the votes that took place in the Commons tonight that she is making progress. Despite the apparent chaos of cabinet ministers voting against her in a free vote, it was significant that several Labour MPs broke ranks to vote against the idea of a new referendum. They might be persuaded to vote for her deal if they think it is the only way of delivering Brexit. If they are added to the trickle of Tory MPs who voted against the deal on Tuesday, but who have since said they would support it next time, she may be half way to closing the gap.

But she needs to persuade 75 MPs to change sides; that is going to be hard to achieve by next week

For once, though, the prime minister won a close vote tonight. It not only breaks her losing streak, it means she just about retains control of the parliamentary timetable. By a margin of just two votes, she saw off an attempt by Labour MP Hilary Benn to take control of parliament’s business next week. That means she does have a chance of getting her deal through – even if the odds seem stacked against it.

If May succeeds, she will travel to Brussels for a summit of EU leaders on Thursday next week and ask for a short extension to the Brexit timetable. She needs this because it is now just too late to get the legislation to implement the withdrawal agreement through parliament in time for the target date of 29 March.

Staggeringly, if she fails next week, and yet comes close, we cannot rule out a fourth attempt – even though that would also mean asking the EU to hold a special summit to sign it off.

It may be that the prime minister will get close enough to agreement to unlock the Labour votes she needs. There are about 30 to 40 Labour MPs who feel strongly that we should leave the EU, but many of them don't want to vote with the Conservatives unless they can be sure that it is actually going to happen this time.

And that is still in doubt; once Brexit is delayed once, it can be delayed again. And that might mean we never leave.