Boris Johnson is in a tough spot over his ‘levelling up’ agenda – he needs more than a slogan

Boris Johnson's 10-point plan for a green industrial revolution neatly marries his new priority on the climate crisis with his long-standing goal of “levelling up” the UK’s poorest regions. 

The government pledges that many of the 250,000 jobs supported or created will be in the north, Midlands and north Wales in what it bills a £12bn programme, though only about £4bn of that is new.

On the face of it, this is a timely riposte to Johnson’s former advisers in the Vote Leave gang, who regard themselves as the guardians of “levelling up” as the need for it was a major driver of the 2016 vote for Brexit. 

They claim the focus on green issues after Dominic Cummings’s exit risks taking the Tories back to their “southern comfort” zone, and that Johnson will therefore lose his new working class supporters in the red-turned-blue wall.

They are not alone. Many Tories view environmental issues as a symbol of the compassionate conservatism of David Cameron. He hugged a husky on a trip to the Arctic, though he would later groan about “green crap” – the cost of going green. Although Cameron squeaked over the line at the 2015 election, Johnson won a majority of 80 on the back of working class votes last December. 

For months a debate has simmered inside government about whether it could still afford an ambitious “levelling up” agenda after pumping more than £210bn into the economy in the coronavirus crisis. Cummings’s departure has now blown the lid off. In the vacuum his absence leaves, figures including Johnson’s new press secretary Allegra Stratton and his fiancée Carrie Symonds are trying to soften the harsh edges of Vote Leave’s approach. The green agenda symbolises Johnson's return to being the liberal conservative who was London mayor.

Johnson allies insist he can both go green and appeal to the Tories’ new tribe, that it is not an either/or. They point out that Stratton has been pressing for more action on “levelling up” for months. They rightly say it is patronising to assume that voters in the north don’t care about the climate crisis. 

They certainly will if the “net zero by 2050” target also brings jobs, though the government will need a more interventionist policy to ensure they go to the areas that most need them, and there has been little sign so far of a proactive industrial strategy.  The Tories would also have to ensure that going green does not harm the living standards of its new supporters.

Others argue that to govern is to choose, and Johnson cannot do both. Rachel Wolf, who co-wrote December’s Tory manifesto, said he must choose between the “just about managing” and “affluent Britain”, and that “there is no third magic middle path” like the green agenda. Labour will match the Tories on the environment, so the issue creates no dividing line.

Impatient Tory MPs in the blue wall share such concerns. Although Johnson reassured the Northern Research Group on Monday he is still fully committed to levelling up, the backbenchers are deeply worried. One told me: “We just don’t believe the money will be there because of Covid. It’s going to take 10 to 20 years and we don’t have that luxury.” 

Ben Houchen, the Tory mayor of Tees Valley, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning that new Tory voters had given the government the benefit of the doubt because of the pandemic but warned: “I think patience is wearing thin.”

In his spending review a week today, Rishi Sunak will confirm the Treasury will end the bias towards the south in the way it assesses infrastructure projects. But this will likely take years to have an impact in the blue wall. Its Tory MPs need quick wins, and visible change in left-behind towns and dying high streets.

What also worries them is that coronavirus has undoubtedly widened the north-south divide. Many parts of the north were under severe restrictions before the current lockdown in England. The latest excess death figures show a chilling gap, ranging from 35 per cent in the northwest and 27 per cent in the northeast to 1 per cent in the southeast and zero in London.

Almost 18 months after Johnson promised to “level up Britain” when he became prime minister, we still have little idea of what his slogan means in practice. It would be wrong for ministers to think that they cannot afford to do it; they can’t afford not to.