Boris Johnson’s hopes of ‘moving on’ from Brexit will soon be crushed by reality

Boris Johnson wants to banish the B-word from the government’s lexicon when the UK leaves the EU on 31 January. The Department for Exiting the EU will be abolished. “Brexit” will not feature in official statements and ministerial speeches, in the hope that the public think it is “done”.

The “people’s government” will focus on the “people’s priorities” – the NHS, crime, schools and the cost of living. The message: the public doesn’t need to worry about those boring, highly technical talks about the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Just a media obsession.

In fact, the media will be right to obsess about it. The fine print of the trade deal will have a huge impact on the UK economy. Yet there has been remarkably little debate in the cabinet or the country about the trade-offs that will become inevitable.

Johnson is still in “cake and eat it” mode. He wants a free trade agreement with no tariffs or quotas, but rejects the EU’s condition for granting that: a UK commitment to future as well as existing EU standards on workers’ and consumers’ rights and the environment. The prime minister told the Commons yesterday there would be “no alignment on EU rules”, saying the UK would “legislate in parallel” on these matters rather than outsource its decisions to the EU.

In practice, the government might accept existing rules but not “dynamic alignment” with future regulations. The EU wants a “level playing field” to stop UK firms undercutting their rivals on the continent. One Brussels source told me: “No quotas and tariffs requires dynamic alignment.”

Of course, there are opening bids in any negotiation and that’s what we are seeing from both sides now. Johnson also raised the stakes by imposing a very tight timetable of December 2020 for reaching a deal. His Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which the Commons approved with a thumping majority of 124, rules out extending the standstill transition that will keep the UK in the single market and customs union from 1 February to 31 December.

Johnson allies say his deadline will “concentrate minds in Brussels”. That might well be true. Ministers also believe talking tough will play well with the pro-Leave voters who switched to the Tories from Labour.

Johnson’s gamble on an election paid off. Now he is gambling again – this time that the cliff edge in a year’s time will force the EU into concessions. After months of headlines about “no deal”, which will hardly persuade voters that Brexit is “done”, the talks will probably go down to the wire.

The EU usually plays hardball in trade negotiations, and it will. For all his bravado now, Johnson may feel under pressure to give ground.

The newly elected Tory MPs in the north and midlands are naturally enjoying a new life that few of them expected when they became candidates. Reality will dawn in the new year. Many of their constituents work in manufacturing firms that depend on frictionless trade with the EU. Will Johnson really risk the Tories’ new dominance in the west midlands by sacrificing the car industry on the ideological altar of a hard Brexit? I doubt it.

Leaving without an agreement, and trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms, could also threaten the Tories’ hold on Labour’s former heartlands. It is scandalous that Johnson’s deal is being pushed through parliament without any economic impact assessment. But a previous government analysis revealed the northeast and the west midlands would take the biggest hit to growth under a Canada-style agreement or no trade deal, because supply chains would be disrupted. If that came true, Johnson would risk blowing up his plan for 10 years in power, and driving his new voters back into Labour’s arms.

We should remember that, for all his rhetoric about his withdrawal agreement, Johnson swallowed an Irish backstop that Theresa May had rejected when it was offered by the EU, and that his deal includes about 95 per cent of hers. When push comes to shove, Johnson might show similar flexibility on EU regulations so he can protect key UK industries.

His hard deadline of December 2020 might yet be blurred. An outline deal might be agreed, with talks continuing into 2021, without formally calling it an extension to the transitional phase.

Another attraction of a last-minute deal for Johnson is that the pressure would make it easier for him to bounce MPs into supporting it. Significantly, the government has dropped its pledge to give MPs a say on the negotiations. Sweeteners offered when Johnson had no majority have disappeared from his bill.

It is a worrying sign of how he will operate now he has a commanding majority: those “taking back control” will be ministers, not parliament as the Brexiteers promised.