Boris Johnson goes nuclear with a plan to sideline parliament. The no-deal rebels need a nuclear response

If any MPs doubted Boris Johnson’s determination to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October, they will not do so now. The prime minister has dramatically announced he will stage a Queen’s Speech on 14 October. It is an attempt to deprive MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit of the oxygen they need to pass a law forcing Johnson to seek an extension of the UK’s EU membership.

The number of Commons sitting days for that process is suddenly reduced. After a short sitting of about a week from next Tuesday, 3 September, MPs were due to return on 7 October after a three-week break for the annual party conferences. Instead, Boris will suspend parliament around 10-12 September. It will not resume until the Queen’s Speech, which will be followed by several days of debate on the measures included in it lasting until October 21-22.

That will leave a tiny window of opportunity for the Commons and Lords to pass a law to prevent no deal by 31 October. Probably an impossibly small one.

The howls of constitutional outrage have already begun and they are justified. In a letter to all MPs, Johnson insists he wants them to have the opportunity to debate Brexit, but this is a naked attempt to squeeze the parliamentary timetable so tight that they cannot achieve the primary objective agreed on Tuesday at cross-party talks called by Jeremy Corbyn – a law forcing Johnson to seek an extension of the Article 50 process.

Now we know why Boris never entirely ruled out proroguing parliament, and today he has deployed this nuclear option. In doing so, he may force opponents of no deal to respond in kind: their nuclear weapon is to bring down the government by passing a vote of no confidence. That option was put on the back burner at Tuesday’s talks – so Johnson’s timing, from his point of view, is clever.

Opting for a new law was the one thing the Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green and Change UK MPs present could agree upon, even if they disagreed on whether a delay should be used for a general election or Final Say referendum (or to get a Brexit deal, as some Labour MPs would prefer).

Corbyn made a tactical retreat over his original preference for a no-confidence motion, knowing there would not be a Commons majority to make him caretaker PM if it was passed.

Since the doubts about Corbyn have been advertised so publicly, Johnson’s priority was to kill off the biggest threat to his 31 October deadline – a law he would have found it difficult not to implement. MPs may still try to find a way to fast-track such legislation but Boris has made it much more difficult and so no-deal opponents will have to go back to the drawing board.

Johnson’s move does not mean, as many MPs will suspect, that he is hell-bent on leaving without a deal. He is still pursuing what I’ve called a dual-track strategy – prepare for no deal in the hope that this boosts the chances of securing a revised deal.

In his talks with EU leaders in recent days in Berlin, Paris and Biarritz, he has convinced an initially sceptical audience that he is serious about wanting an agreement. Today he has tried to increase the pressure on the EU to make concessions on the Irish backstop by convincing it that parliament cannot block no deal.

But Boris is not out of the parliamentary woods yet. MPs will take a leaf out of Johnson’s book by trying to block no deal “by any means necessary”. Other procedural devices will be cooked up: amendments to the Queen’s Speech; presenting a humble address to the Queen; using the scheduled debates on Northern Ireland’s devolved government.

The ace in the rebels’ pack could prove to be the Commons speaker John Bercow. And it may be that the major constitutional row sparked by Johnson’s actions today will eventually be resolved in the courts.

Keeping negotiations on a revised deal in play suits Boris nicely. It will limit the Tory rebellion against no deal, handing some Tories the straw they want to clutch so they do not have to bring down their own government, and risk accusations of installing Corbyn in Downing Street.

If he can outmanoeuvre his parliamentary foes, Boris could win either way: the UK leaves with or without a deal on 31 October.

But it is no use Tory MPs waiting to see whether the EU negotiations produce a new deal at the EU summit on 17-18 October. If the talks fail, it will probably be too late to prevent a crash out.

After his ruthless move today, Tory MPs who oppose no deal will also need to have the courage of their convictions.