Advising tourists to avoid Tunisia only makes another terror attack more likely

The Tunisian ambassador in London has asked the British Government to drop its warning to British nationals not to go to his country for anything other than essential travel. The guidance has led to a 90 per cent drop in British visitors to Tunisia so far this year – a crippling blow to its tourist industry.

The Foreign Office travel advice came after the massacre last summer at the beach resort of Sousse, killing 39 people. It has not changed since, despite the Tunisian government taking extensive security measures and no further major attacks taking place in the country. In fact, more people have been killed by terrorists in Paris and Brussels in the intervening period.

The Foreign Office, however, holds that further attacks in Tunisia are “highly likely”. The terms used are chosen carefully, in line with structured intelligence assessments, but the fact remains that there are many countries where further terrorist attacks are, and have been, “highly likely” and even “imminent” without tourists fleeing.

MI5’s assessment of terror threat in the UK, for example, is “severe”, which it explains means “an attack is highly likely”.

The British Government has effectively imposed economic sanctions on Tunisia, the only country of the Arab Spring which has emerged without prolonged violent strife or sliding back under authoritarian rule.

Not so long ago, Western governments were praising Tunisia for this achievement. They were right to do so.

I was in Tunisia reporting on the fall of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali five years ago. Compared to the mayhem my colleagues and I subsequently covered, as the Arab Spring turned into the bleak Arab winter, the country has coped remarkably well.

The tourist industry is Tunisia’s biggest employer and foreign revenue earner. The lack of international visitors is leading to unemployment. This will sow dissatisfaction among those losing their jobs, who happen, mainly, to be young men. A rich seam is being created for Islamist extremists to exploit.

When covering the Sousse murders, I met many of these young men who feared tourism drying up and them losing their jobs. That is exactly what has happened to many of them now.

Some who have kept in touch speak of a sense of hopelessness and increasing bitterness, of friends and colleagues who may become attracted to violent Islam.

Seifeddine Rezgui, the young student who carried out the Sousse murders, lived with other members of his cell in the Islamic holy city of Kairouan. There, at the Great Mosque of Sidi Uqba, the Imam, Taib al-Gazi, spoke about clerics coming from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states spreading intolerant Wahaabi doctrine.

“We were being infected by extremism, it was very damaging,” he told me. “We have managed to put a stop to that, but these people will try to reappear and, given the chance, they will try to spread their poison again. We know the extremists are here, but in small numbers. Britain should help us get rid of them, not help them by taking away the livelihood of so many young people.”

The terrible consequences of an economic collapse will not just be confined to Tunisia.

We know the scope of international jihad. Rezgui was trained across the border in Libya by Isis, as had those who carried out an attack on the Bardo museum in Tunis two months previously.

Britain is among Western states being drawn back towards military action in Libya. British, western European and American special forces are already on the ground. A UN-sponsored administration trying to establish itself in Tripoli will soon start receiving weapons and training for its troops.

The Western re-engagement is an attempt to combat Isis, which is spreading out from its base in Sirte, Muammar Gaddafi’s home town.

During my last visit to Libya, officials were keen to stress that Isis in their country was run by Tunisians. This may not be true, but there are certainly quite a few Tunisians in their ranks.

There was a suicide attack while I was there, at the northern port of Misrata; the bomber, with the nom de guerre of Abu Wahid al-Tunsi, was from Tunisia.

So Britain is becoming militarily active in Libya to confront jihad while helping to create conditions next door in Tunisia for further jihad.

There have been mistakes in Western policies in the Arab Spring and its aftermath. This is one of them – and one which will have dangerous consequences.