The Commons ban that could hand another victory to ‘lucky general’ Starmer

It wasn’t Napoleon who said: “Give me lucky generals.” It was Cardinal Mazarin, chief minister to Louis XIII and Louis XIV. He said the question to ask of a general is not, “Est-il habile?” Is he skilful? but “Est-il heureux?” Is he lucky?

Keir Starmer is a lucky general. MPs voted today to confirm Margaret Ferrier’s suspension from the Commons for 30 days, for breaching Covid-19 regulations, which opens the way for a by-election in her Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency. The Scottish National Party MP admitted breaking lockdown law by travelling after testing positive for coronavirus.

A by-election in that seat is eminently winnable for Labour, which is enjoying a revival in Scotland as the SNP struggles with the implosion of Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership. It is just what the Labour spin doctor ordered: a chance to broadcast to Scotland that the party is back in contention after a period when it surrendered the role of opposing the SNP to the Conservatives. And it will be a chance to broadcast to middle England that Labour can credibly win a UK election without having to rely on the SNP for a majority in the Commons. This will help to soften the “coalition of chaos” charge that I continue to insist was effective against Ed Miliband in 2015, despite academic analysis purporting to find no evidence for it, which I think is like trying to quantify gut instinct.

This is not the only potential by-election that is a lucky break for Starmer. Lord Ashcroft, the Tory peer and restless pollster, today published an opinion poll taken in Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency. It found that, if there were a by-election there, people say that they would vote Johnson back into the Commons.

This is a stroke of luck for Starmer because I don’t think that there is going to be a by-election in Uxbridge. My sources suggest that the privileges committee will hold back from imposing a severe enough penalty on the former prime minister. That means Starmer will be saved the embarrassment of the Conservatives uniting in defence of their fallen leader and holding a seat that everyone has described as a Con-Lab marginal. (Of course, in many ways Rishi Sunak might prefer to see Johnson cast into the bottomless pit of by-election defeat, but he knows it would be in his interest to avoid losing to Labour.)

There are, as Lord Ashcroft himself admitted, problems with his poll. “Constituency polls have rather a mixed history,” he said, while “projections based on detailed national trends have suggested that the seat is Labour’s for the taking”. Even so, Johnson is a proven election winner who is more popular on his own patch than elsewhere, and Starmer may prefer not to take the risk of Labour failing to secure that blond scalp.

The idea of Starmer as a lucky general reminds us that the Labour leader’s story is an extraordinary one. When he was elected, the party was wrecked after the worst defeat in postwar history. It was so thinkable that Johnson would be a two-term prime minister that The Times put the idea on its front page twice.

Throughout the pandemic, Starmer struggled to make himself relevant, eventually edging into a small lead in the opinion polls at the beginning of last year. It was the sort of lead that could easily be swept aside in the normal swing back of the pendulum towards the government.

But then the Conservative Party chose to try to destroy itself, bringing down Johnson and imposing a patently unsuitable prime minister on the country for seven weeks. She didn’t have time to do much damage to the economy – the sharp rise in interest rates was quickly reversed – but the effect on the Tory party’s reputation was catastrophic. The Labour charge that the Tories have “crashed the economy” is ridiculous, but no more unfair than the same accusation made by David Cameron and George Osborne against Gordon Brown’s government.

Which means that Starmer must be hardly able to believe his luck. Is he skilful? Well, he is better at politics than his detractors allow. The switch from Corbyn-adjacent utopianism to Blair-adjacent pragmatism was achieved with such ruthlessness, and by fooling both wings of the party successively, that there is obviously real ability there.

But is he also lucky? You bet.