The biggest political losers of 2023

The holidays have ended, which means people are finally done seeing their dysfunctional families and inevitably talking about politics. But the annual political chatter amid extra servings and presents will have been a little different when someone is a politician themselves.

Currently, Washington is split, with Democrats controlling the White House and the Senate, but Republicans controlling the House of Representatives by a slim margin, which has led to its loudest and most right-wing voices all but dictating the direction of GOP leadership and deposing a speaker.

Meanwhile, a bevy of Republican candidates are running to challenge former president Donald Trump, but none have even put up the semblance of a legitimate challenge to the former president. Conversely, no credible Democrat with wide name recognition seems to be willing to challenge President Joe Biden.

So as we get ready for another election year, here are the biggest political losers.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy

It’s hard to think of anyone who has had a more humiliating 2023 than the now-defrocked speaker of the House. At the beginning of last year, Mr McCarthy had to spend 15 rounds over the course of a week to earn the gavel thanks to a handful of Republicans opposing him. After a series of negotiations, he all but gave away the House by allowing a single member to file a motion for a no-confidence vote. What followed was him consistently bowing to the wishes of the most extreme voices in the Republican conference, making working with the White House and the Senate all but impossible.

While he did score a modest win by getting the White House to agree to some spending cuts in exchange for lifting the debt limit, the bill only passed because House Democrats bailed him out. But after conservatives repeatedly opposed legislation to keep the government open, Mr McCarthy finally passed a clean spending bill with the help of the Democrats. As a thanks, he trashed them on national television. That led to him being summarily deposed when Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL), his longtime nemesis, filed a motion to vacate the chair and seven other Republicans voted to oust him along with every Democrat present. Mr McCarthy had spent the better part of eight years trying to become speaker, and he finally earned the brass ring only to be kicked out in a spectacularly embarrassing fashion.

President Joe Biden

Mr Biden seemed to show signs of life in 2022, having signed a slew of both bipartisan and Democratic legislation on everything from semiconductor manufacturing, guns, LGBT+ marriage and climate change. He fulfilled a campaign promise to nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court in Ketanji Brown Jackson. He staved off what should have been a catastrophic midterm election and his party actually gained a seat in the Senate, meaning his vice president would not have to constantly trek to the Senate to break ties.

All of this gave him a huge incentive to run for re-election, despite the fact that he turned 81 in November, making him the oldest person ever to seek the presidency. But polling consistently shows him running behind Mr Trump. He also has faced consistent criticism from younger voters for his stance unequivocally supporting Israel as it continues its assault on Gaza after Hamas attacked the country and killed 1,200 people. Mr Biden has yet to begin campaigning in earnest, but his numbers are abysmal. He still has a chance to turn it around, but it will be a massive lift.

Ron DeSantis

Around this time last year, the Florida governor seemed like the preeminent candidate to take on Mr Trump. He had won re-election by almost 19 points in November of 2022. He had become the darling among conservatives for his targeting of how gender identity, race and sexual orientation are discussed in school and his signing legislation that restricted abortion.

But his campaign faced significant trouble before he even announced. Mr Trump almost immediately targeted Mr DeSantis, tagging him with the name “DeSanctimonious.” Moreover, he often refused to attack the former president before he announced, barely mentioning his name.

That seemed to please nobody: to the Maga base, he became a traitor for running against the former president after Mr Trump endorsed his 2018 campaign, while Republicans who wanted a Trump alternative saw him as weak. He’s frequently come off as awkward or impersonal on the campaign trail, deferring to his former news anchor wife Casey. After amassing a massive war chest, his campaign shed staff. He now trails former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. Mr DeSants has gone all-in on campaigning in Iowa. But it’s highly unlikely he can regain the lustre he had earlier this year.

Abortion bans

Republicans severely underperformed in the 2022 midterms largely in response to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v Jackson decision that overturned Roe v Wade. But 2023 proved that wasn’t a fluke and that the anger of female voters and their allies will continue. First, in Wisconsin, Democrats flipped the Supreme Court largely on the back of overturning the state’s abortion ban that dates back to 1849. Then in Ohio, when supporters of abortion rights hoped to put a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights on the ballot, Republicans tried to pre-empt them by trying to raise the threshold to amend the constitution in a separate referendum vote, which voters soundly defeated.

In November, Ohioans voted to enshrine the right to an abortion in its state constitution. Just across the river in Kentucky, Democratic Gov Andy Beshear hammered his Republican opponent for opposing abortion even in cases of rape and incest, earning re-election in a state Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell won by double digits. That same night, Virginia Democrats held the state senate and flipped its House of Delegates largely in response to Republican Gov Glenn Youngkin pushing a 15-week abortion ban. Those results dimmed any hopes Mr Youngkin would run for president in 2024. Anger at abortion restrictions is still a potent force and likely will remain one going into the next year.

Joe Manchin

The West Virginia Democratic senator all but ruled Washington by fiat during the first two years of the Biden administration. With a 50-50 Senate, Mr Manchin, the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus by a mile, had absolute veto power for any single part of the Biden administration’s agenda. That changed when Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives and Democrats gained an additional Senate seat. But Mr Manchin suffered the consequences of going along with the Biden administration on the Inflation Reduction Act, becoming the most unpopular senator in his home state.

Mr Manchin was likely always on borrowed time given he represents a state that shifted dramatically to the right in the past 20 years. As a result, he began to frequently voice his criticisms of the Inflation Reduction Act that he helped write. All the while, he began floating the idea of a quixotic third-party presidential campaign backed by No Labels, the nonpartisan group that some fear would enable Mr Trump to win. Finally, earlier in November, Mr Manchin decided to call it a day and not seek re-election. He may still run for president, but he has reached the peak of his relevance and will make it harder for his party to hold the Senate in 2024.