The May 2 election is off – so what’s the plan now, Rishi?

Unusually, the feverish speculation that Rishi Sunak would hold the general election in May stemmed from his weakness. Normally, when MPs weigh up a prime minister’s options for the election date, they think about how a PM can play to their strengths.

This year, the outlook for the Conservatives is so bleak that rumours swirled around Westminster that Sunak might opt for May to head off a coup by his right-wing critics, and because things could only get worse by the autumn. Even some loyal ministers wondered whether Sunak could limp on until then. Increasingly desperate Tory backbenchers contradicted Downing Street’s line to take. As one told me: “The plan is not working.”

Now the PM has ruled out a May 2 election, he will face a point of maximum danger after inevitable Tory losses at the local elections on that day. His terrible week – with the defection of Lee Anderson to Reform UK, and racist remarks allegedly made by the Tories’ biggest donor Frank Hester – gave the plotters who want to oust Sunak before the election a spring in their step.

The chances of them securing the 53 Tory MPs needed to force a vote of confidence in him as party leader are rising. Sunak would almost certainly survive such a vote, though he could be left hobbling to the election.

The plotters cannot agree on a candidate to succeed him, and most Tory MPs believe yet another leadership battle, even if truncated, would send a terrible signal to voters. If the Tories could agree on a caretaker leader, as they did when Michael Howard replaced Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, Sunak’s days would probably be numbered.

His MPs should rally behind him, but a hardcore of critics won’t, making his party ungovernable.

But Sunak has contributed to the slump in Tory morale. In the eyes of many Tory MPs who are not the usual suspects, he and his team showed a lack of judgement in allowing Anderson to drift away, and in their needless 24-hour delay in calling out Hester’s alleged remarks about Diane Abbott as racist.

The mood at Westminster is so febrile that there is already speculation the UK might have its first July election since 1945 – just about in line with Sunak’s “working assumption” it will take place in the second half of the year. Indeed, the idea is being talked up by some Sunak allies, probably in an attempt to head off the plot to depose him, as the rebels could run out of time.

Labour will no doubt encourage the prospect of a summer poll. Shadow minister Jonathan Ashworth’s £10 bet with Sky’s Kay Burley that there would be a 2 May contest was a good investment. Labour was playing a double game in talking up a May contest. As one adviser whispered: “We knew we could accuse Sunak of being scared if it didn’t happen, and it helped us maintain internal discipline and force shadow cabinet members to finalise their policy proposals.”

I think October or November is much more likely than July. May was never going to happen with Labour 20 points ahead in the opinion polls, and I doubt the figures will change much by the summer.

However, some Labour figures privately fret about a December election, fearing Sunak will gamble on voters judging the Tories better qualified than an untried Labour leadership to handle a re-elected Donald Trump if he wins the 5 November presidential contest. I’m not so sure. Trump’s return would also remind the public the UK needed a closer partnership with the EU, notably on security. Keir Starmer could deliver that; Sunak’s party wouldn’t let him.

Sunak desperately needs a different game-changer. This month’s Budget, his last big shot, failed to provide it. Next week, he will turn back to his flawed Rwanda scheme, which will be approved by parliament after a tussle between the Commons and Lords. But that won’t change the political weather: the elusive first flight to Kigali will again be delayed by legal challenges.

Sunak will also focus on crime and the economy. I suspect his best hope is that voters notice an improving economy by the autumn. They might – but are in no mood to reward the Tories for it. (The public blamed the government for rising inflation, and don’t give them any credit now that it has fallen.)

Ominously for Sunak, veteran Tory MPs liken the atmosphere at Westminster to the run-up to the 1997 election. Whatever former prime minister John Major tried did not work, and a party that had run out of steam after a long spell in office could merely wait for an inevitable defeat.

Although Sunak can’t admit it, his real task now is to prevent Labour repeating its 1997 landslide, to give the Tories hope of regaining power after five years. That is becoming harder every week.