Ryanair strikes: How to tell if your flight could be cancelled by pilot walkout

Hundreds of thousands of passengers are waiting to find out if their flights will be cancelled in the latest round of Ryanair strikes this summer.

Here are the key questions and answers that will help you detect whether your flight is at risk of being cancelled.

Pilots employed by Ryanair in the UK who belong to the British Airline Pilots’ Association (Balpa) have voted strongly in support of a strike. They are in dispute with Europe’s biggest budget carrier on a range of issues from pensions to maternity benefits. Two strikes have been called for the end of the summer holidays: one on 22 and 23 August, the other on 2, 3 and 4 September.

In addition pilots employed by Ryanair in Ireland have announced a strike on 22 and 23 August. The Irish Airline Pilots’ Association (Ialpa) added that it would notify the company of further strike days in due course. The airline has sought an injunction from the High Court to stop the Irish pilots' strike, but is still waiting on a decision.

Everyone involved says they are sorry for the situation. Brian Strutton, general secretary of Balpa, says: “No pilot wants to spoil the public’s travel plans but at the moment it seems we have no choice.”

The Irish union says it regrets “any disruption that might flow from management’s unwillingness or inability to negotiate a fair and transparent pay package”.

And Ryanair’s chief people officer Eddie Wilson said: “We have done everything in our power to avoid disruption to our flights and our customers’ holidays.”

It is still unclear whether the strikes will go ahead and, if they do, what the effects will be.

But were they to take place, I estimate that, of the two million passengers booked to travel on Ryanair on those five days of pilots’ strikes, 500,000 are at potential risk of having their flights cancelled.

Because British pilots make up 23 per cent of Ryanair’s total, and probably operate the same proportion of the airline’s flights. The action by Irish flight crew on 22 and 23 August will add a couple of per cent to that figure. All the rest are crewed from other European countries and should not be affected – though cabin crew strikes in Portugal and Spain may jeopardise some flights.

Note that my 500,000 figure is for all the people booked on planes piloted by UK or Ireland-based crew, but the actual figure affected is likely to be many fewer. That is because by no means will all pilots in the UK and Ireland strike.

Ryanair estimates fewer than half its pilots in those countries are union members. It is likely, therefore, that the majority of flights originating from the UK and Ireland will depart on the strike days. But this is how to tell if your departure is at risk.

If so, you can guarantee the flight is scheduled to be flown by pilots based either in the UK or Ireland. The chances of it operating depends on whether or not the airline decides to crew it from available staff.

You can try to work out if your flight is due to be operated by UK-based pilots.

As mentioned, many flights to and from British airports are flown by pilots based abroad, and will be unaffected.

Without access to Ryanair’s rosters, identifying the likely crew is not an exact science. But you can make an educated guess based on departure and turnaround times. I will illustrate this with an example of links between London and Milan.

It is extremely likely that any flight departing between 6am and 7.30am is crewed from the country from which that flight is leaving. The first Ryanair flight from Stansted to Milan Bergamo, at 8.05am, is outside that window. It will be operated by an Italian crew who are due to arrive at 7.40am after an early start from Italy.

The same applies for the first Ryanair departure from Stansted to Milan Malpensa, at 8.45am.

Later in the day, my technique is to identify an A-B-A pattern with a 25- or 30-minute gap between arriving/departing at B. That makes it likely the flight is crewed from A.

The reasoning is that Ryanair loves quick turnarounds between arriving and departing. But those are much easier to schedule on a flight from a base (A) to the destination (B) and back again than actually at the base.

You can do this by making a test booking at ryanair.com, for a same-day return from your starting point. So the 8.15am flight from Southend to Milan Bergamo arrives at 11am, with the return scheduled for 11.25am. That tells me it is a British-crewed flight, and therefore susceptible for grounding.

Towards the end of the evening, Ryanair likes to have all its planes back home by 11pm or midnight. So the 8.05pm from Stansted to Bergamo, due to arrive at 11.05pm, will not be going anywhere else afterwards – and the Italian-based pilots will be heading home.

At this stage, little beyond spending a fortune on an alternative flight – which may turn out to be unnecessary if the strike is called off or your departure is selected to be crewed by pilots who are working.

If your flight is chosen for cancellation, Ryanair should let you know a couple of days ahead.

The airline will offer you a refund, but you are entitled to ask for a an alternative departure. If Ryanair cannot fly you on the day you are booked, you can demand a flight on a different airline. It must also provide hotel accommodation and meals as necessary, and according to the Civil Aviation Authority pay you compensation of up to €400 (£360).