Travel Question: When should I book December flights?

Q We want to fly from Manchester to Rome in early December. When is the best time to book? I have been told to book as early as possible, to book four weeks ahead and two weeks ahead.

Rosemary W

A Airlines monitor sales and adjust prices constantly. They seek to fill each departure with as many passengers as they can, at the highest possible price. They are also watching competitors’ fares.

But on this particular route in winter, Ryanair is in a strong position. It is the only airline that flies between Manchester and the Italian capital, with a single flight out of Manchester at 6.40am to Rome’s Ciampino Airport, returning at 10.45am. I have checked alternative airports – Liverpool, Leeds Bradford and Birmingham – and found no other direct flights.

Therefore Ryanair should be able to apply the preferred pricing model. The fare gradually increases right up until departure, often with a bit of a surge at the end to take advantage of people who suddenly need to fly from Manchester to Rome at short notice – whether for business or family reasons.

I track prices on a number of routes, and Ryanair seems to apply a disciplined approach, nudging up fares a few pounds at a time. Sometimes there will be a sharp fall, usually during a sudden seat sale, which may be anywhere between four months to two weeks out. But I don’t think that will happen in your case.

Looking right now, the fare flying out on 1 December for a week is £58 return. While it is possible that Ryanair may nudge that down at some time over the next seven weeks, frankly it looks like outstanding value for 2,100 miles of flying. So I urge you to buy now.

Be warned, though, that Ryanair’s current reasonably generous cabin baggage allowance is to shrink dramatically on 1 November. Assuming you can squeeze everything into a 10kg case, you can check it in for £8 each way. Even when paying for baggage, a total of £74 looks an unbeatable fare.

Every day our travel correspondent Simon Calder tackles a reader’s question. Just email yours to s@hols.tv or tweet @simoncalder