The climate crisis will irrevocably change how we holiday: Here’s what the future of travel looks like

Without fail, when summer unfurls each year, I’m gripped by the urge to escape these often cloudy shores to lie in the sun. I’m British, after all, and can’t shake our peculiar attitude towards the closest star to Earth: when rays of UV light bear down, I feel the pressure to soak them up lest I never feel their warmth again. Our friends on the continent aren’t burdened with such tendencies, instead holding a more nonchalant attitude to summertime.

What I don’t want – and, frankly, what scares me – is disruptive, record-breaking temperatures and uncontrollable blazes tearing across the landscape. That anyone could see the extreme weather in Europe – aid workers forced to supply water, wildfires swallowing villages, holidaymakers evacuated by boat, pilots dying while fighting to quell the burning – and could get anything like that whimsical, pre-holiday feeling is completely baffling (even considering the curious British perspective regarding a rise in the mercury).

The myriad effects of climate change have already been seen in this country in ways that largely go unnoticed by those of us whose day-to-day life remains unchanged: the unusual timing of a tree flowering (or bearing no fruit for a whole year); shorelines carved away by ravenous seas; falling numbers of insects and birds across the countryside.

But across the Channel, we’ve seen it unfold on a macro scale this summer. Following the hottest June ever recorded, the Cerberus and Charon heatwaves moved in on mainland Europe: record-breaking 41.8C heat in Italy’s capital, Rome; Verdun, northeast France, reaching 40.6C for the first time ever; highs of 45C premiering in Spain’s Catalonia region; a stretch of days above 40C in Greece, where the Acropolis was forced to close; a blistering 47C in Sicily (just shy of the 48.8C European record temperature reached in August 2021).

In fact, Earth’s average temperature set a record high for the third time in a week on 6 July – with experts cautioning that it won’t be long until this level is again raised. A 2020 study by the European Climate Prediction project painted a disturbing picture of the future, one in which, by the year 2050, Spain’s Andalusia region would reach at least 40C on more than 20 days a year, and that even a city like the German capital of Berlin would regularly exceed 35C. Another study predicts that, by 2050, London’s climate will resemble that of Barcelona today, with an almost 6C increase in the warmest month’s average temperature.

On top of the sweat-busting temperatures, now devastating wildfires have been thrown into the mix. The worst began on the Greek island of Rhodes, where thousands of Britons had to be rescued from their summer holidays, and more blazes have subsequently broken out on Corfu, where around 2,500 people have been evacuated. Eight other countries in Europe – including Portugal, Turkey, Italy, France and Spain – have seen firefighters called in to tackle raging flames. It’s unclear how the fires started – local authorities in Corfu have suggested arson – but the strong winds, higher-than-normal temperatures and dry conditions have allowed them to spread at a frightening pace.

In 2017, after Hurricane Maris ravaged the small Caribbean nation of Dominica, its prime minister Roosevelt Skerrit made a speech to the UN, telling delegates his country had been on “the front line of the war on climate change”; almost six years later, Greece’s prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis described the fight against the fire on Rhodes as a “war”. As we watch the near-apocalyptic scenes in Europe at a time when thousands of Brits are gearing up to travel abroad, we’re confronted point-blank with the stark reality of the climate crisis. There’s no compartmentalising it this time: it’s invaded the part of our mind reserved for holidays, when real life is suspended, where it’s Good Vibes Only.

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So what do increasingly extreme weather conditions mean for how we go on holiday? Even climate campaigners Greenpeace – who in the last week blasted travellers’ dependence on cheap flight routes – accept that people need holidays. I asked the experts at the Met Office, who were clear in their assessment: “Climate change is making heatwaves more frequent, longer lasting and more intense.”

And this likely means radically reshaping our relationship with summer getaways in Europe, the fastest-warming continent. Kirsty McCabe, a meteorologist for Sky News, is clear in her assessment: if the region continues to experience these soaring temperatures, “you won’t be able to have a traditional beach holiday” – warning that the tourism industry will be affected as certain people are put off travelling: “If you’ve got an underlying health condition, these temperatures are not good.”

And it’s not just oppressive heat that’s a consequence of our changing climate – while Europe boiled, the UK has seen an altogether wetter picture. “A warmer atmosphere also holds more moisture, so we can expect an increasing frequency of thundery downpours with large amounts of rain in a relatively short period of time,” a Met Office spokesperson explains.

If this is to be an annual scenario, it’s firmly a “new normal”, which could well lead to a drastic change in holiday habits. Eloise Barker, from travel company Responsible Travel, has written about the impacts of climate change on bookings. She explains that there’s an “immense appetite” for going overseas, and even last year’s heatwave hasn’t majorly changed their most popular destinations (which are consistently Croatia, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy).

The issues are being felt more keenly on the ground, according to Eloise, where “many of [Responsible Travel’s] local partners are increasingly concerned about the changing weather they’re seeing, and its impacts”. Travelling outside of peak season and exploring less-visited areas (especially beyond the popular cities) are ways to spread the benefits of tourism, and are often more comfortable experiences for travellers.

But, in light of this summer’s weather incidents, Eloise warns against swearing off peak-season travel: “It’s also worth remembering that people who live in some of these destinations often depend financially on summer tourism. Cautioning travellers not to visit at all because of potential weather extremes could create its own set of problems for local communities.”

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But the concept of high season is itself flexing as weather patterns shift. Raphael Giacardi, UK chief editor at travel deals platform HolidayPirates, predicts that they may see more holidaymakers take advantage of travelling to European destinations during what is traditionally the shoulder season, September and October. In the meantime, HolidayPirates has seen an almost immediate change in bookings, with people unwilling to give up their summer break, but not willing to travel to the core of raging heatwaves.

“While interest in Spanish holidays in general has dropped, interest in the Canary Islands specifically has increased,” says Raphael. “The Atlantic islands’ subtropical climate makes them a safer bet in terms of weather. Interest in Portugal, which has so far not been as affected by Cerberus as neighbouring countries, is up by about 50 per cent.”

Eloise agrees, with Responsible Travel reporting that not only are people changing when they travel but also what they do while away: “We’re seeing traditional summer seasons extended, stretching from spring well into autumn. Walking routes are shifting to avoid wildfires in places like the Mediterranean and Australia, or landslides in Nepal.

“In places affected by extreme heat, travellers are being strongly advised to start and finish any active pursuits like hiking and cycling early in the day. Winter holidays have been impacted, too – some of our partners are removing activities like cross-country skiing on winter sports tours because of lack of snow, offering alternatives instead.”

While several holiday providers declined to comment on how this summer’s weather has affected their operations, for many in the industry it’s business as usual; they’re still getting back on their feet after the pandemic, and catering to the pent-up demand for travel that Covid lockdowns (and subsequent restrictions) fostered.

“Bookings are up 14 per cent year on year and hotel resort room rates are also higher as both international and local travellers head to resorts to be near a pool and have cold drinks and air conditioning on a hot day,” says Tim Hentschel, CEO and co-founder of HotelPlanner, an online hotels booking platform. “With lots of rain forecast in the UK for the next month, we anticipate the demand for holidays to Europe continuing.”

Therein lies the Gordian knot for would-be holidaymakers from the UK: when it’s drizzling and miserable at home, you begin to compromise with yourself. Surely better to be a little too hot, jumping from your lounger into a pool or the sea, than shivering in July or August? It’s hard to ignore that British yearning to trade perennial drizzle for a sunlit escape. And, for the vast majority of people, it’s early days when it comes to the uncomfortable marrying of climate change and holidays.

As the spectre of extreme heat playing havoc with summer getaways becomes increasingly worrying, where do we turn? “As ever with developing situations, make sure you have your finger on the pulse when you’re about to travel and see what’s happening where you’re going,” says Luke Eales of personal finance and consumer website Wealth. “The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office [FCDO] is an excellent resource which provides guidance about travelling to specific countries and regions, rather than checking social media, which can be deceiving.”

A sensible suggestion, but the FCDO took only gentle steps when warning people about heatwaves in Greece and Spain. By not taking a stronger stance, it left Brits abroad – and those heading overseas shortly – in limbo over cancellations.

“While travel insurance is designed to provide coverage for various unforeseen events, including extreme weather conditions, it typically requires specific circumstances to be triggered for coverage to apply. In the case of cancelling a trip due to an extreme heatwave when no government advisory is in place, travel insurance may not provide coverage for trip cancellations,” warns Jonathan Frankham, general manager (UK and Europe) of travel insurers World Nomads.

Policies can vary significantly, he adds, explaining that some might offer optional add-ons or upgrades “that could include more extensive coverage for specific weather-related events”.

Might this second consecutive year of aberrant European heatwaves be the catalyst for a change of policy from the government and travel insurance firms, where closer attention is paid to the consequences of the climate crisis? There have certainly been calls for the government to rethink its guidance in response to the wildfires in Greece, with the Liberal Democrats’ foreign affairs spokesperson, Layla Moran, telling The Independent’s travel correspondent Simon Calder that it was “staggering that the Foreign Office travel guidance for Rhodes does not advise against all but essential travel”.

Proactive mitigation for dangerously high temperatures, and other climate-related incidents like wildfires, would be a radical – but not unthinkable – step as the world grapples with a changing climate, and would give greater clarity to consumers unsure of whether to travel about their rights on refunds and compensation.

For now, one thing we can control as travellers is making our holidays as eco-friendly as possible, something that Dr Rima Trofimovaite, head of measurement for sustainability certification and advisory company Planet Mark, believes has “never been more important”.

“Every person should be motivated to understand their climate impact and take steps to limit their personal emissions wherever possible,” she says, while recognising that “until low carbon technologies are deployed at scale across the airline industry, air travel will remain hugely carbon intensive”.

Yet more intolerable temperatures have been felt throughout the last week in the Mediterranean. Wildfires have continued to burn, and it’s unclear when they’ll dampen. Despite the devastation, flights have remained on sale; “we understand that it’s a risk ... but we want to go on holiday,” said one tourist. At the same time, I’ve seen a social media post from a friend based in Corfu: “These summers are becoming increasingly worrying for us all.”

The lure of heat and a chance to holiday in the sun won’t go away; but how – and when – we travel is surely due to change.